The climate change scenario that experts dread is looming ever closer, with the risk the world will reach the point of no return unless governments take immediate and more drastic action.

Limiting the rise in global temperature to within 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels was the goal the international community agreed on to avoid heightening the dangers of extreme heat and off-the-charts natural disasters.

The World Meteorological Organization (WMO), however, reported that the global average temperature in 2024 is expected to be 1.54 degrees above the pre-industrial level. The WMO released the projection on Nov. 11, the opening day of the 29th Conference of the Parties to the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP29) held in Baku, Azerbaijan.

Exceeding the 1.5-degree mark on a single-year basis would not immediately mean that the goal has become unachievable but there is no time to waste.

Even in October, there were days when the mercury topped 30 degrees in Japan.

We are about to enter a dangerous world.

In August, a man in his 70s in Shiga Prefecture ended up in a local clinic after a concerned nursing care manager visited the individual’s home and found him looking utterly exhausted.

The doctor, 47-year-old Takashi Sasaki, gave the patient an intravenous drip, which prevented the man from lapsing into a critical condition. Had this procedure been delayed, the man might have died.

When indoors, air conditioners offer the best option against developing heatstroke.

There have been cases where elderly people were unable to operate air conditioners properly because they had spent their entire lives without one or could not decide whether to switch them on because they had dementia.

And sadly, some people simply do not have the financial means to splurge on an air conditioner.

“Climate change takes a toll on socially vulnerable people such as the elderly and financially disadvantaged people,” Sasaki noted. He said this sentiment often occurs to him when he visits an elderly person’s home to provide medical care.

NOT ONLY HEATSTROKES

Increasingly, people around the world are being forced to deal with the effects of rising temperatures.

According to Fire and Disaster Management Agency of Japan, deaths from heatstroke nationwide averaged 300 a year over a five-year period about 20 years ago.

However, the average death toll during the five years until 2023 quadrupled to around 1,300 annually.

The United Nations says excessive heat is to blame for about 19,000 deaths of workers around the world each year.

The international Paris Agreement adopted in 2015 aimed to limit global warming to within 1.5 degrees if possible, which was seen as “well below” 2 degrees above pre-industrial levels.

After that, 1.5 degrees was set in 2021 as a goal that must be achieved to avoid severe damage caused by natural disasters, such as flooding and heat waves.

The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) estimates that if the global average temperature rises by more than 1.5 degrees, the frequency of heat waves will become 4.1 times higher than it would be without the temperature rise, and the frequency of torrential rain will become 1.5 times higher than it would be without this rise in temperature.

Extreme summer heat also has a negative effect on a variety of diseases, scientists now realize.

Masahito Hitosugi, a professor at Shiga University of Medical Science whose expertise is in social medicine, said that both mental and physical stress brought on by heat and an increase in blood viscosity due to dehydration exacerbates most diseases.

He also pointed to indirect threats, such as the expanding habitats of mosquitoes transmitting malaria and other infectious diseases, as well as an increase in injuries caused by natural disasters.

“The number of deaths from heatstroke is only for the ones we recognized,” Hitosugi said. “There should be other deaths from extreme heat that go unrecognized.”

According to a paper published in 2022 in the medical journal The Lancet that analyzed 300 or so surveys worldwide, excessive heat increases the risk of cerebral apoplexy, coronary heart disease and irregular pulse.

For every 1 degree increase in temperature, the risk of death from cardiovascular disease rises by 2.1 percentage points.

UNACHIEVABLE 1.5-DEGREE GOAL

Even though life on Earth is under threat from climate change, the global response is not catching up with reality.

The WMO reported that the global average temperature in 2023 was 1.45 degrees above the pre-industrial level.

The IPCC noted that global greenhouse gas emissions must be capped and lowered by 2025 to achieve the 1.5-degree goal.

There is only a year left.

Still, greenhouse gas emissions keep hitting record highs.

Member nations of the United Nations are required to submit their new goal for emissions reduction by 2035. The deadline for submission is February next year.

But it remains unclear if each country will be able to take proactive measures due to concerns about the increased burden they will face.

Newly emerging countries such as China and India are increasing their emissions as their economies are growing.

Countries aren’t pulling together as they should. Meantime, the global average temperature of 1.5 degrees above pre-industrial levels is fast approaching.