The last day of campaigning for the Oct. 27 Lower House election was a race to the finish.

Leaders of the ruling party and the opposition made desperate pleas to capture every single vote in the hope it might put their candidate over the top.

“This is the first major headwind we have faced since the party returned to power (in 2012),” newly minted Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba said while stumping in Akita city, northern Japan, on Oct. 25.

Speaking bluntly, Ishiba told supporters of the ruling coalition led by his Liberal Democratic Party in partnership with Komeito that “there are still many electoral districts where the candidates are equal in support.”

He cautioned that the coalition will not maintain its majority “unless we capture those districts.”

A nationwide survey by The Asahi Shimbun on Oct. 19 and 20 suggested the coalition was in danger of falling short of winning an outright majority.

Yoshihiko Noda, the head of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, called on voters to turn out in force.

“The extent to which unaffiliated voters head to the polls will determine which side wins,” Noda said in Chiba city. “If we win in more of those districts, there is a big possibility of shoving the coalition into minority status.”

Speaking on Oct. 26 in the Shibuya district of Tokyo, Noda said: “We must put an end to politics in which the public are made to look like fools. The LDP shows no signs of remorse, so it is up to us to make them assume responsibility.”

Prior to the start of campaigning, the LDP held 247 seats while Komeito had 32 for a coalition total of 279.

But if the coalition loses a combined 47 seats or more, it will lose its majority. The last time that happened was 15 years ago, which led to the formation of a chaotic government led by the Democratic Party of Japan.

If the LDP alone loses at least 15 seats, it will lose its majority in the Lower House, the most powerful of the two chambers. In the past four Lower House elections, the LDP captured an outright majority.

DISUNITY FACTOR

The failure of the opposition parties to work together and back a single candidate in the single-seat districts could help the coalition to maintain its majority.

In this election, a total of 1,334 candidates are running, an increase of 293 over 2021.

While the CDP is fielding 237 candidates, roughly the same number as in 2021, the Japanese Communist Party has gone all-out by putting up 236 candidates, up by 106 over 2021.

Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party), which has not cooperated in past Lower House elections, is also fielding more candidates than three years ago, in this case 164, an increase of 68.

This means there are only 46 single-seat districts where there is a single candidate from a major opposition party. That figure represents a decrease of about 100 from 2021.

The larger number of districts where opposition votes may be spread out over several parties gives the coalition a greater chance of winning those seats.

A record number of female candidates are running and how that will translate into winning seats will be closely watched.

Until now, the 54 women who won seats in the 2009 Lower House election remains the largest number elected at one time.

It seems unlikely that there will be a change of the guard to a younger generation as the average age of all candidates is 54.2, like three years ago.

Candidates in their 50s represent 28.2 percent of the total, making it the largest bloc. Eleven percent of the candidates are 70 or older, making this the first election in the postwar era in which that ratio has exceeded 10 percent.

Twelve percent of the candidates are under 40, marking a two-percentage point increase over three years ago when a record low ratio was hit, courtesy of the current electoral system which was put in place in 1996.

A key focus of interest concerns a damaging scandal involving crooked LDP lawmakers and large amounts of off-the-books cash. With the scandal so fresh, there are fears of a voter backlash and an increase in turnout.

Turnout in 2021 was 55.93 percent, the third lowest ever. The record low came in 2014 when turnout was 52.66 percent.

(This article was written by Takuro Chiba and Nobuhiko Tajima.)