MORIGUCHI, Osaka Prefecture--The election strategy shift of Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party) could not only change the political landscape of the Kansai region but might also help to determine who governs the nation.

The shift directly affects candidates of Komeito, the junior coalition partner of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party, in the Oct. 27 Lower House election.

To ensure local political cooperation, Nippon Ishin had refrained from challenging Komeito’s candidates in six Lower House single-seat constituencies in the Kansai region.

But Nippon Ishin, now the second-largest opposition party, judged that it no longer needs Komeito’s help and has fielded candidates in those six constituencies this year.

A weekend Asahi Shimbun survey indicated that the ruling coalition could lose its Lower House majority in the election.

One factor is the more difficult road ahead for Komeito candidates in the six constituencies.

One of those districts is Osaka No. 6, which covers the cities of Moriguchi and Kadoma as well as Osaka city’s northeastern wards of Asahi and Tsurumi.

The constituency, a traditional Komeito stronghold, has provided more proportional representation votes for the party than any other electoral district in Osaka Prefecture.

Komeito’s Shinichi Isa, who is seeking his fifth term in the district, is facing off against a candidate from Nippon Ishin for the first time.

Isa, 49, spoke before a supportive crowd in front of Keihan Electric Railway Co.’s Moriguchi-shi Station here on Oct. 20.

“You hang in there,” a man shouted, raising both fists.

Many in the crowd cheered as Isa stood on a campaign vehicle.

Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba was on hand to campaign for Isa, perhaps reflecting the coalition’s understanding that the Komeito candidate faces a tough challenger.

Kaoru Nishida, a former Osaka prefectural assemblyman and a Nippon Ishin member since the party’s founding in 2010, is running on the party ticket in the Osaka No. 6 district.

Nishida, 57, is trying to knock a wedge in election cooperation between the LDP and Komeito, saying the two parties have differing views about the state and the Constitution.

Komeito officials initially expressed pessimism about Isa’s re-election prospects.

“We are afraid that he may be no match for (Nishida),” a senior official of the party’s Osaka prefectural headquarters had said.

Komeito lost the Lower House seat here only once, in 2009, after the combination of single-seat constituencies and proportional representation was introduced in 1996.

The party has received about 100,000 votes in the single-seat constituency in every Lower House election since 2012.

Isa began a live video distribution on TikTok on the night of Oct. 15, when official campaigning started.

“We cannot win only by closing the ranks of Komeito supporters,” a senior official of his campaign said. “It all depends on whether we can win over undecided voters.”

Komeito backers from around the country are now drumming up voter support in Osaka Prefecture.

Backed by Soka Gakkai, Japan’s largest lay Buddhist organization, Komeito has a strong presence in the Kansai region.

However, Nippon Ishin’s main power base is also the Kansai region. And in unified local elections last year, the party gained majorities in both the Osaka prefectural and municipal assemblies for the first time.

After those victories, Nippon Ishin felt it no longer needed Komeito’s support for the initiative to merge the Osaka prefectural and municipal governments.

But local issues have also created a stiff headwind for Nippon Ishin.

Costs have ballooned for the 2025 Osaka Kansai Expo, a project spearheaded by the party.

Motohiko Saito, who was elected Hyogo governor with Nippon Ishin’s support, was forced to vacate the post in September amid bullying and corruption allegations.

“Give us another chance,” Nishida said, bowing his head to a crowd at the start of campaigning on Oct. 15. “Believe in us again.”

One campaign official said Nishida “feels in his bones that voters have moved away from Nippon Ishin in Osaka Prefecture.”

The party has lost a number of local elections since spring.

In the city of Mino, Osaka Prefecture, Mayor Kazuhiko Ueshima was denied his re-election bid in August.

It was the first election loss by an incumbent mayor endorsed by Nippon Ishin since the party’s founding.

“We can no longer expect a tailwind that Nippon Ishin received in the past,” said a senior official of Nishida’s campaign.

Three other candidates from the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, the Japanese Communist Party and Sanseito are also in the running in the Osaka No. 6 district.

In the proportional representation portion of the election, voters cast ballots for a political party.

In four single-seat constituencies in Osaka Prefecture, both Komeito and Nippon Ishin did not list their candidates on their proportional representation lists, meaning they will have no chance to gain a seat if they lose in the electoral districts.

“We will never go on the defensive,” Osaka Governor Hirofumi Yoshimura, co-representative of Nippon Ishin, said. “We are done if we lose.”

(This article was written by Tatsuya Harada and Yuichi Nobira.)