Photo/Illutration The H-3 Launch Vehicle No. 2 lifts off from Tanegashima Space Center in Kagoshima Prefecture on Feb. 17. (Asahi Shimbun file photo)

The successful launch of Japan’s new flagship H-3 rocket on Feb. 17 has opened a new chapter for the nation’s space program.

This comes less than a year after the failure of its inaugural launch in March last year, securing the resumption of the program. To earn the trust of potential international customers, it is vital to build a solid track record by steadily achieving successful H-3 missions.

The second H-3 Launch Vehicle mission was still described as a “test flight.” It is premature to declare that a system for stable H-3 operations has been established just because of a single successful launch.

One reason for the caution is that the investigation into the cause of the failure of the H-3’s maiden flight has failed to definitively identify why the second-stage engine failed to ignite.

To achieve a quick restart without compromising the integrity of the investigation, a method was adopted that narrowed the possible scenarios to three and implemented preventive measures for all of them.

One of the components related to the three scenarios is an ignition device used in the H-2A rocket, which has achieved more than 40 consecutive successful launches.

Ensuring the quality management of tried and proven components while incorporating the latest technology and insights to upgrade their performances remains a key and tough challenge for the space program.

The project manager at the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) described the persistent challenge as the difficulty of continuing to use “mature technology.”

The H-3 rocket is intended for various government projects, including missions for establishing a base in lunar orbit, the International Space Station and satellites for national security purposes.

On the other hand, operations of the new launch vehicle will eventually be transferred to Mitsubishi Heavy Industries Ltd., which co-developed the H-3 rocket with JAXA.

To move from dependence on government funding and support and attain commercial success, efforts have been made to improve engine performance and reduce costs by using commercial components while enhancing production line efficiency.

However, looking globally, rocky roads lie ahead for the H-3 program.

Indeed, there is a growing global demand for rockets due to the increasing use of a so-called small satellite constellation, a group of small satellites working together as a system to achieve specific purposes or provide services such as global internet connectivity.

Yet, in the United States, SpaceX boasts an overwhelming launch track record and other major manufacturers are fiercely competing in the development and operation of new rockets.

In addition to building on the reliability acquired through many successful H-2A missions, enhancing cost performance will be critical for the success of the H-3 program.

Last fall, the government created a “space strategy fund” of 300 billion yen ($2 billion) to support technology development and commercialization projects involving universities and private-sector companies over the next 10 years.

Earlier this month, the government outlined strategies in three areas: “transport,” “satellites” and “exploration,” and set a goal of achieving approximately 30 launches per year by the early 2030s, including rockets other than the flagship.

Whether the H-3 can win customers for its launch services in the global launch market will be a litmus test for the development of the entire Japanese space industry.

--The Asahi Shimbun, Feb. 18

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