It took two world wars and the Cold War for rule of law, democracy and the free trade system to take root around the world. But these vital values and norms are now being seriously challenged and eroded.

This year, the world will witness a slew of crucial elections; for president in Russia, the United States and Taiwan, and general elections in South Korea. The outcome of these political events will be crucial for answering one big question about the world’s future. Will the world revert to the old order where leading powers were locked in bitter and perennial confrontation, or will it hold onto pursuing international cooperation? This is a pivotal year. The world stands at a crossroads.

AUTHORITARIANISM 

Around the turn of the year, Russia and Ukraine had intense military exchanges. The latest bout of fighting was triggered by Russian airstrikes that claimed around 50 lives in Kyiv and other parts of Ukraine.

Moscow’s cruel military actions to torment Ukrainian civilians during the harsh winter were merely a means for Russian President Vladimir Putin to maintain his power.

The Russian presidential election in March will likely be a farce, a mere political ritual to legitimize Putin’s dictatorship and Russia’s aggression against Ukraine. Opposition forces have been eliminated and control over the media has intensified. There is no hope for a free and fair election there.

It may come as a surprise but the Russian Constitution, in terms of what it says, is as democratic as those of Western democracies. It advocates for the separation of powers, freedom of speech and free elections as the ultimate expression of the people’s will.

But those constitutional principles have become a dead letter under Putin’s more than two decades in power. Freedom of the press was the first target of the regime’s attack on democracy. Through changes in the electoral system and other measures, it has become increasingly difficult for dissenting political forces to gain seats in the legislature.

Yet, recent opinion polls indicate many Russians are concerned about the future of the war. The presidential election will likely be an opportunity for Putin to suppress these anxieties and legitimize the invasion.

Dictatorships in Russia and other parts of the world have taken all sorts of steps to tamper with democratic systems to stay in power, such as making amendments to constitutions to extend their terms and altering election systems to eliminate political enemies. For such dictators, elections have become mere theatrical backdrops to strengthen their grip on power.

DEMOCRACY IN CRISIS

This year will also pose a severe trial to the United States, which has led the postwar world in establishing global norms.

Tolerant pluralism was undermined under former President Donald Trump, allowing movements to exclude or marginalize immigrants and minorities to create corrosive divisions in American society.

Fundamental principles of democracy were violated. Three years ago, Trump’s refusal to concede the presidential election precipitated the Capitol attack in which Trump supporters violently tried to obstruct the transfer of power.

The Trump administration gave short shrift to U.S. alliances, adopted protectionist trade policies and beefed up U.S. military capabilities, including its nuclear arsenal. Sadly, President Joe Biden failed to cure the effects of these damaging policies of his predecessor. Instead, by framing strained U.S. relations with China and Russia as the “autocracy vs. democracy” battle under a foreign policy agenda focused on countering these two powers, the Biden administration has further fueled division.

With over 60 percent of Republican supporters still not acknowledging Biden’s electoral victory, American voters will go to the polls this autumn to elect their new leader. If Trump returns to power, internal and external divisions and conflicts will deepen, and the United States’ standing as the “standard-bearer for a free and open order” will be decisively shaken.

Even more worrisome is the extreme political distrust worldwide, stemming from societal divisions. Politics has transformed from competing for better policies to a struggle to define friends and foes, with increasingly narrow room for compromise.

Support from those disillusioned with established mainstream politics is turning toward politicians who cast themselves as political outsiders, as seen last month in the presidential election in Argentina with the victory of a “far-right” politician who idolizes Trump.

Political turmoil in various countries indicates that merely having a seemingly democratic constitution and election system does not ensure the functioning of democracy. Restraint and tolerance to recognize political opponents as legitimate participants in the democratic process rather than enemies to be eliminated are essential.

The global proliferation of the “my country first” mindset will lead to the survival-of-the-fittest world filled with competition and conflict, where might makes right with little room for international cooperation to play essential roles. Compounding the crisis of democracy, China is also intensifying its authoritarian and hegemonic tendencies. To prevent the emergence of a chaotic, might-based order, what should be done?

EMERGING AND DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

In an era where major powers can no longer be trusted to promote a democratic world order, we must pay more attention to a new trend: the rise of emerging and developing countries that do not fully align with the United States, China or Russia, and are asserting their political stance. In recent years, these countries have come to be collectively referred to as the “Global South.”

Their degrees of democratization and international standing vary, but they constitute a growth sector, where the middle class can potentially increase to uphold democracy.

Many Global South nations have demonstrated their commitment to the principles of respect for sovereignty and humanitarianism as enshrined in the U.N. Charter in recent votes in the U.N. General Assembly.

In response to the situation in Gaza, the General Assembly adopted a resolution calling for an immediate humanitarian ceasefire. As many as 153 of the 193 U.N. member countries supported the resolution even though the use of U.S. veto power has rendered the U.N. Security Council dysfunctional.

Regarding the war in Ukraine, where Russia has torpedoed resolutions for a truce with its veto power, the General Assembly has adopted multiple resolutions condemning Russia, with the support of over 140 countries.

The entry into force of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons has also provided thrust to this trend. The Global South has become a major force that can lead efforts to shape global norms.

We should explore strategies to form international public opinion in the U.N. General Assembly and use it for resolving conflicts and restoring order. For this campaign, the role of emerging and developing countries is indispensable.

Advanced countries, including Japan, should build a relationship of trust with these nations by sharing the principle of the rule of law and pursuing delicately designed cooperation that does not try to impose specific values or norms on them.

--The Asahi Shimbun, Jan. 6