The Kyoto electoral district is becoming one of the fiercest battlegrounds in the Upper House election next month--among opposition parties.

The results could be potential “make-or-break” moments for two of them.

Progressive forces have long been strong in Kyoto, compared with other districts in the nation.

In past Upper House elections with two seats up for grabs in the constituency, one typically went to a candidate of the ruling Liberal Democratic Party and the other to an opposition candidate.

In the election six years ago, Satoshi Ninoyu of the LDP and Tetsuro Fukuyama, a veteran lawmaker with what is now the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan, were elected.

Ninoyu has retired from politics while Fukuyama is seeking re-election in July.

But Fukuyama faces a serious challenge from Nippon Ishin (Japan Innovation Party), a conservative opposition party that is growing in popularity.

Instead of targeting the ruling LDP in Kyoto Prefecture, Nippon Ishin is taking aim at the CDP.

“We want to capture the CDP stronghold (of Kyoto),” Hirofumi Yoshimura, deputy head of Nippon Ishin who serves as governor of Osaka Prefecture, said when he traveled to Kyoto in May.

Although the CDP holds the most Diet seats among the opposition parties, recent opinion polls have consistently shown that the percentage of respondents picking Nippon Ishin as their choice for the proportional representation segment of the Upper House election is higher than the figure for the CDP.

Nippon Ishin intends to continue the momentum it gained through its success in the Lower House election in October.

A senior official of Nippon Ishin said that winning the Kyoto race would go a long way in terms of enhancing the party’s status.

“The public image of Nippon Ishin has been that its support base does not extend beyond Osaka Prefecture,” the official said. “If we beat the CDP in Kyoto, the significance would be more than just gaining a single seat.”

Nippon Ishin plans to field 18 candidates in 17 electoral districts of the Upper House election, including in Osaka, Kyoto, Hyogo, Kanagawa and Aichi prefectures, as well as Tokyo.

Fumitake Fujita, secretary-general of Nippon Ishin, has called the Kyoto race the “most important.”

The stakes are high for the CDP in Kyoto.

If Fukuyama loses his seat, questions would likely surface over the responsibility of the CDP leadership led by Kenta Izumi, who became party head in November. Izumi is a Lower House member representing a constituency in Kyoto Prefecture.

Another opposition party, the Democratic Party for the People, is rallying behind the Nippon Ishin candidate, Yuko Kusui.

On June 4, Seiji Maehara, chief of the DPP’s election committee, backed Kusui’s campaign in a speech in Kyoto.

“We are determined to make a change in Japan together with Nippon Ishin with which we share the spirit of reform,” said Maehara, who represents a constituency in Kyoto Prefecture in the Lower House.

Maehara was a former head of the Democratic Party of Japan (DPJ), which was in control of the government from 2009 to 2012. One of his DPJ colleagues was Fukuyama.

They went their separate ways when the DPJ eventually split into the CDP and DPP.

But Maehara and Nippon Ishin officials are not exactly on the same wavelength in terms of desired election results.

While Nippon Ishin wants to oust the CDP in Kyoto, Maehara’s stated goal is a sweep of the two seats by parties other than the LDP and the Japanese Communist Party.

Concerning Fukuyama’s re-election bid, Maehara said, “I want him to fare well.”

However, CDP officials are concerned that Maehara’s endorsement of Nippon Ishin’s Kusui could end up taking away many votes from the CDP and Fukuyama.

Maehera has a solid support base in the prefecture and in some labor unions there.

The Kyoto chapter of Rengo (Japanese Trade Union Confederation), which backs both the CDP and DPP, announced its decision early to support Fukuyama. But the labor organization will ultimately let member unions decide on how they will vote.

The LDP is fielding Akira Yoshii, a former Kyoto city assemblyman, to fill the seat vacated by the now-retired Ninoyu.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida and former Prime Minister Shinzo Abe have visited Kyoto to pitch Yoshii.

Still, officials with the LDP Kyoto prefectural chapter said they face a tough race, noting the party’s reputation in the prefecture has been tarnished by recent money scandals.

“There is no doubt that Nippon Ishin is gathering momentum,” one of the officials said. “We should revise the election strategy.”

The JCP has traditionally had a certain level of support in Kyoto and is alarmed by Nippon Ishin’s ascent in recent years.

Kazutoshi Watanabe, who heads the JCP’s Kyoto prefectural chapter, said Nippon Ishin is effectively a “force complementing the LDP,” not a party challenging the LDP.

(This article was written by Tatsuya Harada, Shinichi Kawarada, Tomomi Terasawa and Koshin Mukai.)