Photo/Illutration Pedestrians in Tokyo’s Kabukicho district on May 15 (Asahi Shimbun file photo)

Japan’s corporate leaders are pessimistic about the prospects for the limping economy as the pandemic drags on, according to a recent survey of 100 major companies by The Asahi Shimbun.

About 70 percent of the companies surveyed said the economy reached a cyclical bottom last year and that it is on the road to recovery now. But more than 60 percent said the economy will not return to the shape it was in around January 2020, just before the pandemic started to rage, until 2022 or later.

Thirty companies said the economy will return to a pre-pandemic level “during the first half of 2022,” while 26 companies predicted “the latter half of 2022.”

Noriaki Kiyota, the president of Toto Ltd., is among those in the “first half of 2022” camp.

“Around that time, vaccines will be made available to a certain degree and people can move around freely,” he said.

Meanwhile, 11 companies expressed a gloomier view that the economy will only return “in 2023 or later.”

“It will be the first half of 2023 when the number of foreign visitors return to the pre-pandemic standard, and it will be the latter half of 2023 for the domestic economy to do so,” said Takashi Goto, president of Seibu Holdings Inc.

Atsuo Shimodaira, vice president of McDonald’s Holdings Japan Ltd., suggested a full recovery is unlikely.

“Consumption practices have changed,” he said. “The (economy) will not return to its original state.”

When it comes to the slump in consumer spending brought on by the ongoing pandemic and state of emergency, 53 companies said it “will be a seesaw struggle for the next three months,” while 41 companies said personal consumption “will make a mild recovery during the next three-month period.”

“The potential appetite for spending among the wealthy population is high,” said Naoya Araki, president of H2O Retailing Corp. “But they don’t have a place to spend because wining and dining, as well as traveling, are restricted due to the pandemic. Personal spending has been stagnant.”

Thirty-nine companies said they have experienced “a big negative impact” from the pandemic, while 42 companies said they have “to a certain degree.”

“In Southeast Asia, some orders we accepted have been suspended,” said Yoshikazu Oshimi, president of Kajima Corp. “If the prices of materials--such as iron, ready-mix concrete and light gas oil for heavy equipment--increase in Japan in addition to the already increasing labor costs amid a labor shortage, businesses in our industry will likely experience a sharp downturn.”

Demand has rebounded in some industries, but the supply of parts has yet to catch up.

“Sales quickly recovered in three major markets--the United States, China and Europe--rebounding from the tough times of the pandemic,” said Toshihiro Kuriyama, president of Alps Alpine Co. “But semiconductors necessary for manufacturing products have been in short supply and given us a headache.”

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The Asahi Shimbun

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