Photo/Illutration Medical staff of the Self-Defense Forces Fukuoka Hospital teach how to put on and remove protective gear to Fukuoka prefectural government officials in Kita-Kyushu on April 10. (Asahi Shimbun file photo)

Japan's pace of new coronavirus infections has slowed slightly two weeks after an initial state of emergency was declared, but health authority data indicates it is far too soon to predict when the outbreak will be contained.

Though the number of infections has been rising in Tokyo and six prefectures covered under the April 7 state of emergency, they are increasing at a slower pace, an analysis of health ministry data by The Asahi Shimbun shows.

The increase in the total number of infections slowed significantly in Fukuoka, taking more than seven days to double in the past week. Earlier, they had taken just three.

The overall pace of total cases also fell slightly in Tokyo, Kanagawa, Saitama, Chiba, Osaka and Hyogo prefectures for the past week, compared to around April 7, when it took a week to double in the areas.

The pace in Tokyo doubled in about six days during the week before April 7, but took 11 days to double leading up to April 21.

Fukuoka's total infections doubled in about three days in the week prior to April 7, but took 12 days to do so in the past week.

Osaka and Kanagawa prefectures also recorded a similar trend.

The results of reported infections are said to reflect the situation regarding the spread of the virus two weeks previously because the novel coronavirus has a 14-day incubation period.

The Asahi Shimbun also analyzed data collected from users of an Agoop Corp. smartphone app to determine how the public was responding to the central government's request that residents stay home as much as possible.

The data from the Softbank Group Corp. affiliate's app showed residents in Tokyo and the six prefectures included in the initial emergency declaration significantly reduced their outdoor activities.

Data on foot traffic in areas within a 500-meter radius of each major station in Tokyo and six other prefectures in one week were compared.

Turnout began dropping at Tokyo's Shinjuku Station in the week leading up to the April 7 declaration, falling by 18 percent before April 6 compared with the previous week.

Beginning April 7, foot traffic fell 33 percent at the station compared with a week earlier.

From April 14, 28 percent fewer people were seen near the station, compared with the previous week.

Despite the positive signs, health authorities warn Japan's hospitals will still likely be overwhelmed further due to lack of hospital beds as the total number of infected patients continues to rise. 

Even patients who recover are required to remain in hospital for a while before they are discharged.

Yoshihiro Takayama, vice manager of Okinawa Chubu Hospital's department of infectious diseases, asked the public to remain patient to see how effective the state of emergency is at controlling the virus.

“The results of the policy that people should stay at home will be apparent soon,” Takayama said.

“We will know how effective the Japanese measures, including battling clusters and taking voluntary preventive actions against the virus, were and whether we should continue to do so.”

(This article was written by Hisatoshi Kabata and Ryutaro Ito.) 

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