On a recent winter day, a bus was traveling through an intersection in Tokyo with pedestrians at a speed of 30 kph.

The bus was moving in a stable manner, despite the traffic lights and oncoming traffic.

Approaching a curve, the vehicle’s steering wheel automatically rotated smoothly. There was no one "driving" the bus, although there was a driver at the wheel, just in case. 

The self-driving bus was equipped with preloaded map data as well as seven cameras and 14 sensors. A staffer at the driver’s seat let go the steering wheel, in principle.

“The bus drove smoother than expected, though I felt a shock at the time of braking,” said a woman, 62, about her experience aboard the self-operating vehicle.

Tracing a 4.1-kilometer route along a public road, the demonstration ride in December was organized to shuttle between Odakyu Izumi-Tamagawa Station in the capital’s Komae city and the nearby Tamagawa Jutaku housing complex.

The bus reportedly ran with Level 4 autonomous technology.

Vehicles at Level 4 face specific restraints for fully automated operations. Self-driving cars with automatic braking systems and other driver-assist features at Level 1 are operated basically by human motorists, while Level 5 represents completely autonomous vehicles controlled entirely by automated systems.

The demonstration was conducted by a verification project team, comprised of Komae city and Nippon Telegraph and Telephone East Corp. (NTT East).

Driving the experiment is the ongoing shrinkage of local bus services.

Securing transportation for the local community is considered particularly urgent because the population there is expected to rise shortly given the planned redevelopment of Tamagawa Jutaku.

“We will be contemplating a range of approaches to extend support to regional bus routes,” said a Komae city representative.

Local governments throughout Japan are moving toward utilizing self-driving buses, in the hopes that the autonomous technology will overcome the dire shortages of drivers.

Buses without dedicated drivers at the wheel are being tested in Tokyo and elsewhere, as operators even in the capital are being forced to scale down or abandon their regular bus timetables.

However, challenges remain for authorities and bus companies to address before automated buses can fully provide an indispensable means of transport for residents.

AROUND HANEDA AIRPORT

Driverless technology is being tested on buses in Tokyo’s 23 wards. 

In Ota Ward, a private operator, ahead of local authorities, is taking the lead in incorporating a Level 4 automated vehicle.

The autonomous bus program has been available daily since last summer on the grounds of the commercial complex Haneda Innovation City near Haneda Airport. A total of 73,000 passengers have taken 16,000 rides to date.

Gas and brake pedals are automatically operated through sensors, whereas a human crew is also on board.

Yoshiki Emori, an official from the bus operator, Boldly Inc., explained that the trial aims to identify future challenges.

“Topics such as how to swiftly respond to emergencies on an unmanned bus while ensuring safety need to be considered,” he said.

MANPOWER CRUNCH

The lack of drivers has resulted in the discontinuation and scaling down of fixed route bus services across Japan, posing serious problems in the capital along with rural areas.

Community bus services in Tokyo’s Arakawa and Adachi wards are anticipated to be abolished in part at the end of March.

Keisei Bus Co. in Ichikawa, Chiba Prefecture, outside the capital, has decided to withdraw as the provider of the Shioiri Sakura program in Arakawa. Tobu Bus Central in Adachi reached a similar conclusion on the ward’s Harukaze No. 7 service.

“The latest decision has likely been made after the operator mulled how to effectively allocate its limited number of drivers,” said an Adachi Ward representative.

Keio Bus in the capital’s Fuchu has recently announced that it would end its route between the Keio Line’s Seiseki-Sakuragaoka Station and JR Sagamihara Station at the end of March.

The bus company is alike weighing reducing the number of operations for other areas amid “the driver shortage and declining overall ridership following the COVID-19 pandemic.”

The 2023 findings of a survey conducted by Teikoku Databank Ltd. on major regular route bus services nationwide revealed that 98 companies, or about 80 percent of Japan’s private bus corporations, reduced or discontinued their routes in 2023.

Routes in the suburbs of the metropolitan region around Tokyo, alongside early morning and late-night services, were primarily targeted under the trend.

Bus operators are struggling with the aging of and lack of bus drivers in particular due to the tightening of regulations on overtime work for drivers that took effect in 2024.

Surging fuel costs are eroding their profitability, and increased wages for existing staffers render it much more difficult for many enterprises to procure the funds to hire new drivers.

DRIVERLESS SOLUTION AS SAVIOR

With the difficult operating environment in mind, the state and the Tokyo metropolitan government have high expectations for driverless operating technology.

The central government has set a goal of introducing “unmanned automated transport services” to 50 locations by fiscal 2025 and to upward of 100 spots by fiscal 2027.

This fiscal year, no fewer than 99 initiatives have been adopted nationwide under a specialized subsidy framework for local governments. These regional governments typically test Level 2 vehicles, according to the transport ministry.

Tokyo is similarly looking to “make this type of service accessible across the capital during the 2040s.”

It has newly set up a special system to assist municipalities and bus operators.

The capital’s government has likewise developed the guidelines for drawing up plans to run Level 4 buses via a verification test, because it has received inquiries from prospective operators that are “interested but unaware of the detailed procedures.”

“Our hope is giving municipalities a boost to adopt self-operating technology as a solution to the dearth of drivers,” said a Tokyo representative.

COSTS, RISKS

Asked about the feasibility and safety of projects to apply autonomous buses to public roads, Mai Niizoe, a senior researcher at survey firm Sompo Institute Plus Inc., who is knowledgeable about autonomous cars, said that the technology is not yet advanced enough to serve as a fundamental mode of “transport for citizens.”

“It must be said that operating automated buses along fixed routes in busy urban areas, such as making left and right turns repeatedly, is too risky for now,” Niizoe said.

At the same time, Niizoe estimated that driverless bus services will become available on a full-fledged basis in town within a few years, as more local governments push forward with experimental rides with an eye toward incorporating Level 4 vehicles.

“Most self-driving vehicles should already be rated 85 out of 100 in technical terms,” said Niizoe. “Steps have been steadily taken to clarify operators’ responsibilities in the event of accidents, among other civil liabilities.”

Niizoe listed the hurdles to clear.

“It is important for other motorists around automated cars to readily recognize autonomous vehicles’ characteristic movements,” she said. “Conducting year-long trials, rather than one-off tests, is essential for improving their social acceptance.”

The technology’s introduction expenses reportedly exceed 100 million yen ($669,000) per vehicle, whereas a profitable business model has yet to be established. On top of that, few mechanics can properly maintain self-operating cars at present.

“For the spread of the technology, the central and local governments should offer not only financial support but also infrastructure development, for instance, by adding sensors to traffic lights to assist in automated vehicles’ operations,” Niizoe said.

(This article was written by Seri Ishikawa and Yuka Honda.)