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The number of childless elderly men who live alone will likely more than double to 5.2 million in 2050, outnumbering women living under the same circumstances, a study showed.

The Japan Research Institute estimated the number of those 65 and older living alone based on demographic forecasts by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research (IPSS), national census statistics and other data.

The institute also studied whether the seniors would have a spouse, children or close relatives.

According to the estimates, 5.2 million elderly men will be living alone and without children in 2050, up from 2.31 million in 2024.

By comparison, 5.13 million elderly women with no children will be living alone by that year, the estimates showed.

In addition, 2.02 million elderly men will be living alone and without relatives within the third degree of consanguinity, which includes uncles, aunts, nephews, nieces and great-grandchildren.

The figure is up from 1.14 million in 2024.

“Women tend to live longer than men, and that explains why many elderly women live alone,” said Makiko Okamoto, an economist at the Japan Research Institute’s Economics Department. “But in recent years, a growing number of men have no family members or relatives to rely on.”

One reason is an increase in the number of men who do not marry.

In 2020, 28 percent of men were not married at the age of 50, up from 20 percent in 2010, 12 percent in 2000 and 5 percent in 1990.

Figures from the 2020 national census also showed that 7 percent of men in their late 50s remained single after divorces.

Okamoto said men who are divorced or not married are likely to face social isolation as they age.

“After divorces, fathers often become alienated from their children more than mothers and cannot depend on them,” she said.

Experts are concerned that more elderly men will become socially isolated.

An IPSS survey released in 2022 showed that 23.1 percent of elderly men living alone said they have no one to turn to when it comes to “help in everyday small things,” compared with 7.2 percent of such women who answered that way.

In the first six months of this year, 28,330 elderly people died alone at home nationwide, according to the National Police Agency.

Men accounted for 83.5 percent of the 10,154 solitary deaths covered by a report released this month by the Small Amount and Short Term Insurance Association of Japan.

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