Photo/Illutration Some of the 2,000 or so participants of Tokyo Rainbow Pride, one of Japan’s biggest events that organize members of LGBT sexual minorities and their supporters, parade through the capital’s Shibuya district on April 24, 2022. (Naoko Kawamura)

Most people tend to significantly underestimate the possibility that there are members of so-called minorities, such as LGBT sexual minorities, and people with color blindness, in their proximity, a study shows.

Ryosuke Niimi, a Niigata University associate professor of cognitive psychology, also showed in his study that people’s preconceived notion that there are no minority members in their surroundings could cause a lack of understanding and consideration for minorities.

CHANCES OF AT LEAST 1 MINORITY MEMBER IN CLASS

Niimi conducted an online survey of those who have signed up for a crowdsourcing platform and analyzed the answers given by 429 people aged between 18 and 76.

The survey subjects were told that it is said that 7 percent of college students are either gay or bisexual.

The figure is based on the results of a survey taken at a university in Japan.

The subjects were then asked, with a college class or a similar group in mind, “What do you think the percent probability is that there is at least one gay or bisexual among 30 college students?”

The probability given by the most respondents was 2 percent. Many others said they believed the likelihood was less than 10 percent. The median value was 3 percent.

Some 90 percent of the respondents believed the probability was smaller than what it actually is.

The actual probability in the given case can be derived by first obtaining the likelihood that none of the 30 individuals are either gay or bisexual and subtracting that figure from unity.

Calculations for the case where a minority category accounts for 7 percent of the population show that a group of 30 people includes at least one individual of that category at a probability of 89 percent.

WHEN PROBABILITY IS SHOWN

A similar question was asked on the premise that 3 percent of the population suffer from color blindness, also called color vision deficiency, which means they have difficulty distinguishing between reddish and greenish colors.

The actual probability that at least one individual has color vision deficiency in a group of 30 people is 60 percent, but the likelihood figure given by the most respondents was only 1 percent.

Nearly 90 percent of the respondents, again, underestimated the probability.

A separate survey asked the subjects if they agreed to each of a set of statements saying that consideration should be exercised for those with color blindness.

One of the statements said, for example: “Company management should take responsibility for creating a workspace in which people with color vision deficiency can work comfortably.”

When the survey subjects were told about the actual probability that at least one individual has color blindness in a group, the average score indicating the extent to which they agreed to each of the statements rose to 79.18 on a scale of 100, up from 73.95 before the probability was presented to them.

“Humans are not good at thinking about probabilities,” Niimi said. “If people tend to underestimate likelihoods of minority inclusion in a group, that’s probably not because they are prejudiced against minorities but because they have seldom ever thought about similar probabilities.”

Niimi added he also found that respondents tended to underestimate inclusion probabilities when they were asked similar questions about minority groups that are seldom associated with discrimination, such as people with absolute pitch.

The likelihood that a given group includes members of similar minority groups, who are difficult to be recognized as such from appearances, could be much higher than anybody might think, and they could be living close by.

“Educating people on similar facts could be a first step toward creating a society that is more friendly for minority people,” Niimi said.

His research results were published in an expert journal of cognitive psychology at (https://doi.org/10.1080/20445911.2024.2347399)

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