Photo/Illutration Japan’s birth rate has been declining since the second baby boom of the 1970s. (Asahi Shimbun file photo)

Japan’s already low birth rates have further declined.

Last year, the nation’s “total fertility rate,” which indicates the number of children a woman is expected to give birth to during her lifetime, fell to an all-time low of 1.20.

Although the Diet enacted the revised Child and Childcare Support Law, arguments made on the issue by the ruling and opposition parties have remained at cross purposes, with their key points failing to connect.

Constructive bipartisan debate is urgently needed to confront the demographic decline head-on. 

The government, citing a significant decrease in marriages during the pandemic, had predicted a decline in the fertility rate. As it turned out, the drop was sharper than expected.

The number of marriages also slipped by nearly 6 percent from the previous year, falling below 500,000. The prediction that the fertility rate would start to rebound this year now looks very doubtful.

The question is whether the government’s “different dimension measures” to reverse sinking birth rates, centered on the revised childcare support law, can effectively address the situation.

Indeed, the “kasokuka puran” (acceleration plan), a bold childcare support package financed by 3.6 trillion yen ($23.1 billion) in annual spending on measures such as expanding child allowances, represents progress in terms of the scale of budgeting.

However, it is unclear whether these measures can curb the decline in births, given the recent increase in the share of people who never marry.

Concerns remain that the new levy to finance the package, dubbed “child and childcare support fund,” might disproportionately affect the working-age population.

What truly effective measures can be taken to stem the declining birth rate? How should the funds be shared across society? When the Diet considered the policy measures involved, core questions such as these should have been addressed in a constructive debate.

The Kishida administration is primarily responsible for the lack of in-depth legislative discussions on these issues. It tried hard to suppress debate on tax increases and pressed the flimsy argument that the support fund would not create a “real” financial burden, thereby dodging tackling the question of financial responsibility.

One basis for the “zero burden” claim is “reduced insurance premiums,” but the details of the prerequisite cuts in the government’s expenditures on the public medical and nursing care insurance programs, or increases in user fees for these services, are still unclear.

In addition to an increased burden on the elderly, there could also be an impact on young people through family caregiving.

The government must offer a sincere explanation and ensure there will be careful discussions on related issues in the coming months.

It is disappointing that the opposition parties failed to present a realistic alternative for stable funding for the childcare support package.

However, the debate is not over yet. The government aims to double the “child budget” by the early 2030s. The opposition parties should align their child support policies with those of the government, at least in terms of policy direction.

Just at the time of the bipartisan talks that led to the “integrated tax and social security reform,” creating a bipartisan consultation framework might be an idea that merits serious consideration.

Enhancing the effectiveness of policies and verifying their effects is also important. The newly established “kodomo daredemo tsuen seido,” a program to give all children access to care facilities, faces significant challenges in meeting users’ needs and securing the necessary manpower.

Increasing the uptake rate of paternity leave is one thing, but efforts are also needed to correct the current situation that places a disproportionate burden on women. To move forward will require changes in society’s mindset and workstyles.

Broad discussions and consensus-building should be continuously pursued if comprehensive and multilayered initiatives are to be achieved.

--The Asahi Shimbun, June 7