Photo/Illutration The site of the Ministry of Health, Labor and Welfare in Tokyo’s Chiyoda Ward (Asahi Shimbun file photo)

In 2060, 17.7 percent of Japanese age 65 or older will likely have dementia, the health ministry announced on May 8.

That forecast amounts to 6.45 million people, up from an estimated 4.43 million people who were suffering from dementia in 2022.

In addition, in 2060 another 6.32 million elderly people, or 17.4 percent of those 65 and older, are expected to have mild cognitive impairment, a stage prior to dementia, up from an estimated 5.58 million.

Combined, around one in three elderly Japanese people is expected to have problems with their cognitive functions in 2060.

Previous ministry estimates showed that the number of people with dementia would reach 8.5 million in 2060.

Toshiharu Ninomiya, a professor of epidemiology at Kyushu University who was responsible for the latest study, said a fall in the smoking rate and advances in high blood pressure and diabetes treatments could have curbed the decline in cognitive functions.

The latest study was conducted from fiscal 2022 to fiscal 2023, covering 7,143 elderly people in four areas in Japan.

Prevalence rates for dementia and other symptoms were estimated, and mid- to long-term projections were made based on the future population estimated by the National Institute of Population and Social Security Research.

The Basic Law on Dementia, the nation’s first legislation related to dementia, took effect in January.

By around autumn, the government plans to formulate a basic plan to promote policies to realize a society where people with dementia can live with dignity.

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