NAHA—Various questions have emerged following a simulation exercise on Jan. 30 examining the evacuation of about 120,000 Okinawa residents in the event of a military conflict in nearby Taiwan.

The tasks include supporting the large number of evacuees and anticipating when an attack would occur. 

Central and Okinawa prefectural government officials participated in the exercise, which involved evacuating residents of the Sakishima islands located southwest of the main Okinawa island and closest to Taiwan.

The objective was to use private-sector planes and ships to move the residents to seven prefectures in the main southern island of Kyushu as well as Yamaguchi Prefecture on the western tip of the main Honshu island.

Under the law to protect civilians, the central government has designated all of Okinawa Prefecture as requiring resident evacuations should a situation arise in which a military attack is highly likely.

About 110,000 residents of the Sakishima islands, along with 10,000 or so tourists visiting those islands, would be subject to evacuation to Kyushu and Yamaguchi Prefecture.

The 1.3 million or so residents of the main Okinawa island would be asked to remain indoors in the event of a military attack.

Officials from the five municipalities of the Sakishima islands as well as the Self-Defense Forces, Cabinet Secretariat, Japan Coast Guard and the Fire and Disaster Management Agency took part in the simulation exercise.

In the exercise, the aircraft parking aprons at airports in Okinawa were utilized to the maximum possible extent, and the capacity of ships was increased.

Under such conditions, about 20,000 people, or double the usual number, could be transported each day away from the Sakishima islands.

All 1,700 or so residents of Yonagunijima island could be evacuated to Kyushu in one day, the exercise found.

The central government wants to compile an evacuation plan in the next fiscal year.

The Okinawa prefectural government conducted the first such simulation exercise in March 2023.

Since then, consideration has been given to how to evacuate those with special needs, such as senior citizens and the disabled.

‘UNREALISTIC’ PLANS

But not all issues have been resolved.

One topic that will require more consideration is how to support the evacuees after they have left Okinawa.

Determining when a military attack might occur in advance is also a crucial but difficult task.

The Ishigaki municipal assembly set up a special committee regarding evacuations in December 2022.

An interim report in December 2023 highlighted many of the difficult topics that will have to be dealt with, such as what to do when residents refuse to evacuate, setting up a cooperative structure with airline and shipping companies as well as what compensation program should be implemented.

“It is unrealistic to try to evacuate all (50,000 or so) residents here,” said Shiro Hanatani, who chaired the special committee.

But he added that more residents were showing an interest in the issue, meaning work to solve the remaining challenges should go beyond party lines.

Last autumn, the central government asked the eight prefectural governments set to take in the evacuees to cooperate.

The prefectural governments are expected to compile an initial plan for taking in evacuees in the fiscal year beginning in April.

The Fukuoka prefectural government has been looking into available rooms at public housing complexes and hotels where evacuees could be housed.

But while Fukuoka has the most accommodations of any of the eight prefectures, it will likely only be able to house 64,000 evacuees, at best.

And if the evacuation should become an extended one, the local infrastructure in the prefectures accepting the evacuees could soon reach its limits.

“Looking at only hospitals, more patients might show up than during the novel coronavirus pandemic,” one prefectural government official said. “The scale is way beyond what may be needed in the event of a natural disaster, so I feel putting together a plan to do this is not very realistic.”

As the Cabinet Secretariat would handle the actual tasks involved in coordinating the evacuation, efforts are being made to strengthen its functioning.

A new team within the Cabinet Secretariat will be set up in the next fiscal year to coordinate among the local governments assembling their own plans to orchestrate the evacuations.

“If the evacuation was prolonged, there will also be a need to coordinate providing for schools and new jobs,” one Cabinet Secretariat official said. “Planning by the local governments taking in the evacuees will be very important.”

(This article was written by Satsuki Tanahashi, Taro Ono, Hayato Kaji, Itsuki Soeda and Shohei Sasagawa.)