Photo/Illutration A new model from BYD Co., China’s leading electric vehicle maker, on display at the Guangzhou International Motor Show in November (Akihiro Nishiyama)

hina is expected to dethrone Japan as the world’s top automobile exporter this year on the strength of electric vehicles and special demand from sanctions-hit Russia.

Automakers in China exported 3.92 million vehicles during the first 10 months of this year compared with 3.59 million vehicles shipped from Japan.

The China Association of Automobile Manufacturers announced Dec. 11 that 480,000 vehicles were exported in November, the second-highest figure this year after October.

While the Japan Automobile Manufacturers Association has yet to release the November export number, it appears almost certain that China will stay on top for the full year.

Exports from China totaled only about 1 million vehicles a year until 2020, but the country has since added about 1 million units every year.

Electric vehicles are leading its export drive.

About 1 million electric models were shipped during the first 11 months of this year, accounting for a quarter of overall vehicle exports.

The figure was about 90 percent more than the same period last year.

Shipments of gasoline-powered models to developing countries also rose this year.

Between January and October, 750,000 vehicles were exported to Russia, a sharp rise from the 160,000 units last year as Japanese, U.S. and European manufacturers pulled out from the Russian market following Moscow’s invasion of Ukraine.

Japanese companies, playing catch-up in the fast-growing electric vehicle market, are facing stiff competition from Chinese rivals around the world.

Chinese manufacturers are not only exporting their electric-powered products, but also building factories in Europe, Southeast Asia and elsewhere.

Japanese companies have traditionally controlled a large share of the automobile markets in Southeast Asian countries.

A senior industry official said Chinese automakers advancing into the region with electric offerings pose a threat to the stronghold of the Japanese players.

Some Japanese companies are already struggling in Thailand, where electric models now account for about 10 percent of new vehicles sold.

Thailand is the second-largest destination for Chinese-made electric vehicles and plug-in hybrid vehicles combined.

In China, local automakers have dominated the expanding market of electric vehicles, hurting sales of Japanese rivals and squeezing their profits.

“In Southeast Asia, Japanese automakers are bound to face the same challenges as they are facing in China,” said Tang Jin, a senior research officer at Mizuho Bank who is familiar with the Chinese automobile market.

Marcus Berret, a senior partner and auto industry expert at the German-based consulting company Roland Berger, estimates that electric vehicles will account for 45 to 50 percent of the new vehicles sold globally by 2030.

He said Japanese companies, which have been front-runners in gas-electric hybrid vehicles, need to quickly adapt to market changes toward electric vehicles.

(This article was written by Kohei Kondo, Akihiro Nishiyama in Beijing and Chinami Tajika.)

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