The ruling Liberal Democratic Party lost one of two by-elections for Diet seats previously held by party lawmakers, despite Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s pledge to win both polls.

In the Lower House’s Nagasaki No. 4 district, the LDP’s Yozo Kaneko defeated Seiichi Suetsugu of the main opposition Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan in a tight race on Oct. 22.

But Hajime Hirota, an independent backed by the CDP, trounced the LDP’s Ken Nishiuchi in the Upper House’s Tokushima and Kochi electoral district on the same day.

“The elections were undoubtedly tough,” LDP Secretary-General Toshimitsu Motegi told reporters at the party’s headquarters in Tokyo on Oct. 22. “We humbly accept the results.”

Kishida was less than upbeat.

“We take the results seriously and will adopt all possible measures to respond to problems after analyzing the regional political situations and the impact of the merged electoral district,” he told reporters on Oct. 23.

Both elections were one-on-one contests between the LDP and the opposition camp.

Kishida, who initially set the two-victory goal, Motegi and other LDP leaders, including Yuko Obuchi, chair of the party’s Election Strategy Committee, visited the electoral districts to stump for the LDP candidates.

When LDP officials learned that Nishiuchi was struggling in the Upper House race, the goal was revised to “one win and one loss.”

Kishida is expected to dissolve the Lower House for a snap election as early as this year to increase his chances of re-election as LDP president when his term expires in autumn next year.

But his Cabinet’s already poor approval rating sank to its lowest level—29 percent--since Kishida inaugurated his government in October 2021, according to an Asahi Shimbun survey conducted on Oct. 14-15.

“The prospect will be bleak if the approval rating continues to slump even after one by-election victory,” a former Cabinet minister said. “If Kishida cannot dissolve the Lower House before the LDP leadership race, some party members could try to force him out of office.”

Kishida said Oct. 23 that dissolving the Lower House is not on his mind.

“Now is the time to focus on challenges that cannot be postponed to protect people’s lives from the strained international situation and the increasing cost of living and hand over peace of mind and affluence to the next generation,” he said. “I am not thinking about any other issue.”

In the Upper House’s Tokushima and Kochi electoral district, Hirota, 55, gained 233,250 votes, while Nishiuchi, 56, also backed by junior coalition partner Komeito, polled 142,036 votes.

Hirota, a former CDP Lower House member, fought as a complete independent partly to win support from conservative voters, although he was backed by the CDP, the Social Democratic Party and the Japanese Communist Party.

The winning candidate and his staff did not even mention the name of the CDP or any other political party during the campaign.

According to an Asahi Shimbun exit poll, Nishiuchi secured backing from only 69 percent of LDP supporters.

Gen Nakatani, who heads the LDP’s Kochi prefectural chapter, said Nishiuchi’s loss stemmed from the fact that the by-election was called due to the resignation of the LDP’s Kojiro Takano over violence against one of his aides.

The CDP welcomed the outcome on the main island of Shikoku.

“We were able to deliver a stern ‘no’ to the current government administration,” Hiroshi Oguchi, who chairs the CDP’s Election Strategy Committee, told reporters. “It was a significant fight.”

In the Lower House’s Nagasaki No. 4 district, Kaneko, 40, also backed by Komeito, garnered 53,915 votes, ahead of the 46,899 votes scored by Suetsugu, 60, also supported by the SDP.

Kaneko received all-out support from the LDP faction headed by Kishida.

His father, Genjiro Kaneko, is a former Upper House member who belonged to the Kishida faction and served as farm minister in the Kishida Cabinet.

The seat was vacated by the death of Seigo Kitamura, also a Kishida faction member.

In both elections, voters appear to have given priority to economic conditions, where price increases have outpaced wage growth.

In Asahi Shimbun exit polls, 52 percent of respondents in the Upper House by-election and 50 percent in the Lower House by-election picked “the increasing cost of living and economic measures” as the key policy in deciding how they voted.