With less than two years to go until the 2025 Osaka Kansai Expo, the outlook of the world’s fair is still overshadowed by concerns about delays in the preparation and surging costs.

It is necessary to review related projections and plans to see if they are too optimistic.

None of some 50 foreign countries and regions that plan to build pavilions in the expo venue at their own costs has yet submitted blueprints to the Osaka municipal government for approval. A serious labor shortage in the construction industry and higher construction material prices may be causing delays in talks between the client countries and construction companies.

Japanese plans to build expo facilities are also plagued by problems. A series of unsuccessful competitive bidding to choose contractors has forced changes in construction plans, including price hikes and simplified designs, to attract bidders in fresh bidding.

Contractors for part of the eight specific themed pavilions that the Japan Association for the 2025 World Exposition is to build have not been selected to date.

The central government has given up selecting the contractor for the Japan Pavilion it is responsible for through competitive bidding and decided to negotiate a private contract with the contractor to be chosen at its own discretion.

The total venue construction cost for the association’s facilities was initially estimated at 125 billion yen ($865.3 million). But the estimate was raised by 50 percent to 185 billion yen at the end of 2020 for reasons, including necessary measures to deal with summer heat, according to the body.

The original cost estimate, made before the specifications of the facilities were determined, was simply based on the costs of past similar projects. The association says it will try not to further increase the total cost despite the failed bidding.

The overall construction costs of the expo will be divided equally among three parties--the national government, the Osaka municipal and prefectural administrations and the business community.

That means tons of taxpayer money will be spent to finance the mammoth event. The central and local governments should not be allowed to simply place an increased financial burden on the public.

Swelling costs are beginning to affect admission fees to cover operation costs. The price for the one-day adult ticket to be sold during the expo period, for example, has been set at 7,500 yen, well above the original projection of 6,000 yen.

The association says the increase is needed to enhance measures for dealing with congestion. But this also signals overly optimistic planning.

Another potentially serious problem has remained unresolved since the end of 2018, when Osaka won the right to host the 2025 expo. It is the event’s relationship with the project to develop an integrated resort (IR) featuring a casino in the Yumeshima artificial island in Osaka Bay, which is also the venue for the expo.

People involved fear that the two massive construction projects, if carried out simultaneously, could only put an additional strain on the construction industry, which is already struggling with a manpower crunch and soaring costs. They are also concerned that heavy traffic of trucks and other construction vehicles could cause serious traffic jams in the areas around the island.

Under the Yumeshima development project, which started in the 1970s, some 390 hectares of land has been created through reclamation using industrial waste and surplus soil from construction sites. But the collapse of the so-called asset-inflated bubble economy disrupted urban development projects on the island.

A plan to build an Olympic village for an Osaka Olympics on the island fell through as Osaka’s bid to host the Games failed.

After Osaka Ishin no Kai, a regional political party, won the Osaka mayoral and gubernatorial elections, it proposed both the IR and expo projects as ways to reverse the declining economic fate of the island.

The opening of the IR has been delayed to 2029. Still, the operator says there is no time to waste on the planned construction work.

With the expo looming on the horizon, it is vital for the parties concerned to discuss and swiftly determine the relationship between the two megaprojects.

--The Asahi Shimbun, July 4