Abandoned homes, some so dilapidated that they pose a danger, are increasingly dotting Japan’s landscape, and not just in rural areas.

The government is trying to address this problem, including through a revised tax credit program to prompt property owners to repair the rickety homes or replace them with new ones.

But Japanese demographics are working against any solution.

As society increasingly grays and the population shrinks, even more unoccupied and unwanted houses are expected in the coming years.

Owners often cannot find any buyers for the properties or lack the funds or time to properly manage the houses.

According to the internal affairs ministry’s 2018 Housing and Land survey, 8.49 million houses were empty nationwide, accounting for 13.6 percent of the total housing market.

The survey is conducted every five years.

Nomura Research Institute projects the ratio will jump to 31.5 percent in 2038 unless most of these structures are dismantled.

The percentage is projected to sharply increase particularly after 2025, when the baby-boomer generation, whose home-ownership rate is higher than other age groups, is 75 years old or older.

Long-abandoned homes numbered 3.49 million, or 5.6 percent of all unoccupied housing in Japan, excluding holiday homes and rental accommodations, according to the 2018 survey.

In six prefectures, including Kochi and Kagoshima, the ratio of long-abandoned homes topped 10 percent.

Of the 3.49 million empty homes, 2.4 million were wooden houses, and 1.01 million of them were in a state of serious decay or damage.

A private group that provides consultations regarding matters related to vacant homes in Saitama Prefecture said many people have questions about what to do with their childhood homes that were left uninhabited after their parents died or moved out.

Many old homes are left standing because relatives do not want to “part with” their childhood memories, their parents asked them to retain the houses, or it was too difficult or expensive to clear everything left in the houses, the group said.

In many cases, relatives want nothing more to do with the homes they have inherited.

In 2021, Japanese courts handled about 250,000 cases in which the right of inheritance to homes was relinquished, 1.5 times the figure 10 years earlier.

In 2015, the vacant houses special measures law went into force with the aim of reducing the growing number of unoccupied homes.

Under this law, local authorities can tear down houses that are on the brink of collapse, even if they cannot locate the owners.

For properties whose inheritance was relinquished, local authorities can sell them off through a mechanism under the Civil Law.

But this approach is difficult for small houses in rural areas because their appraisal values are so low.

The government has long stuck to its policy of giving preferential treatment in the form of mortgage tax break to buyers of newly-built housing. But it has paid little attention on what to do after those new homes grow older.

“What we are seeing today are the consequences of failing to take sufficient measures to address the final stage of the life cycle of housing,” said Chie Nozawa, professor of urban planning at Meiji University. “The government should draw up measures to close down those homes by setting aside funds to help dismantle them.”

The government is now reviewing the current setup that provides tax breaks for fixed properties, eyeing the introduction of the new system in fiscal 2023.

The base of the real estate tax for residential land is reduced to one-sixth of the appraisal value if the land measures 200 square meters or less.

The government in considering shrinking the scope of these tax credits for owners of poorly managed long-unoccupied homes.

The plan is for the tax change to spur owners to fix the properties or tear them down.

Under the law, a house deemed a “specified vacant home” has the potential to collapse and is hazardous in terms of hygiene. These homes can be excluded from the tax credit system under the vacant houses special measures law if owners fail to manage them adequately, despite warnings by local authorities.

Tokyo’s Setagaya Ward, which is known to contain toney neighborhoods, has 50,000 unoccupied dwellings, the most in the nation.

Setagaya officials have been trying to locate the owners to ask them to dismantle or sell the homes.

Officials say the task is time-consuming and requires more manpower to generate results.

(This article was written by Takaya Katada, Sachiko Miwa and Go Takahashi.)