Photo/Illutration Prime Minister Fumio Kishida speaks at a Dec. 16 news conference. (Pool)

Japan’s exclusively defensive posture that is an embodiment of the pacifist postwar Constitution was effectively abandoned Dec. 16 with a decision by the Kishida Cabinet to possess the capability of striking at enemy bases preparing to launch an attack on Japan.

As far back as 1956, the government has maintained that the Constitution did not specifically prohibit Japan from protecting itself in this way. Under Prime Minister Ichiro Hatoyama, the Cabinet said possessing such capability was within the limits of self-defense.

But that Cabinet, along with all subsequent ones, also decided as a matter of policy not to venture in that direction.

Acquiring it would have required huge outlays for defense equipment that successive administrations considered prohibitive. There was also deep concern that neighboring nations, still bristling over Japan’s wartime behavior across Asia, would be up in arms over such a development.

The first step toward altering that fundamental stance came when Shinzo Abe was about to step down as prime minister in September 2020. He left behind a document that summed up his thoughts on Japan’s defense, including concerns that ballistic missile defense systems alone would not be enough to protect the nation.

He proposed that discussions be held after he left office on the possibility of Japan possessing strike capability against enemy missile bases.

The National Security Strategy approved by the Kishida Cabinet on Dec. 16 stated that missile defense alone was insufficient and made clear he intended to forge ahead and give Japan strike capability.

This fundamental shift in policy is bound to have both positive and negative ramifications, say experts.

Ken Jimbo, a professor of international security at Keio University in Tokyo, said possessing the new capability would serve as the core of the strategy to interfere with any Chinese move to change the international status quo through military force.

“It will be important to deter such moves by China by having it realize that Japan does possess that capability,” Jimbo said.

But Seiji Endo, a professor of international politics at Seikei University, also in Tokyo, said, “Having that capability will make Japan a more dangerous nation in the eyes of our neighbors.”

He warned it could even increase instability in the East Asia region through an arms race.

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