Photo/Illutration Health minister Katsunobu Kato speaks at an expert panel meeting in Tokyo on Aug. 18. (Mirei Jinguji)

Although the latest spread of the novel coronavirus appears to be slowing down, COVID-19-related deaths are expected to continue climbing and hit record levels.

A panel of experts advising the health ministry on COVID-19 measures said at an Aug. 18 meeting that the average number of new infections nationwide over the week to Aug. 17 was 0.87 times the average of the previous week.

It was the first such decline in new COVID-19 cases since the end of June, according to data presented at the meeting.

Decreases were reported in 29 of Japan’s 47 prefectures.

In Okinawa Prefecture, the seven-day average was 0.8 times the average of the previous week.

The experts, however, noted regional differences in the spread of the virus.

All four prefectures on the main island of Shikoku saw their seven-day averages rise more than 1.1 times from week-earlier levels.

And the totals reported do not include the record-high nationwide tally of more than 255,000 new cases logged on Aug. 18.

“Many people went home during the Bon holiday season this year, so the number of new cases could increase,” health minister Katsunobu Kato said at the meeting.

According to calculations by The Asahi Shimbun, the number of deaths caused by COVID-19 has been increasing since late July.

A daily average of 118 deaths were reported across Japan for the week to Aug. 3, followed by an average of 194 deaths over the seven days to Aug. 10.

For the week to Aug. 17, the daily average of COVID-19 deaths was 232, the highest toll in the seventh wave.

That was near the average of 240 daily deaths for the week to Feb. 28, the record for the sixth wave.

On Aug. 18, 287 fatalities were reported in Japan, surpassing 200 deaths for the fourth straight day. It was third most COVID-19 deaths for one day in Japan.

Panel leader Takaji Wakita, head of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, said there have been no signs of improvement in the strained health care system, including general medical treatment.

“The number of deaths tends to surge later than the increase of new cases, so there are concerns that the death figure will exceed the record,” he said.

The occupancy rate of hospital beds remains high, topping 50 percent in 41 prefectures as of Aug. 17, according to the Cabinet Secretariat.

The occupancy rate of hospital beds set aside for severely ill COVID-19 patients was in the single digits in 19 prefectures. But these beds were filling up in some prefectures, including rates of 64 percent in Tokyo and 50 percent in Osaka Prefecture.

(This article was written by Mirei Jinguji and Yuki Edamatsu.)

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The Asahi Shimbun