Amid the war in Ukraine and Russia’s threat of using nuclear weapons, the Tenth Review Conference for the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty (NPT) kicked off recently at U.N. Headquarters in New York.

The Ukrainian crisis and the Russian threat show that the world needs cooperation on nuclear weapons disarmament more than ever–-but what can this conference do to avert another nuclear disaster?

At the NPT conference, one focus is the relationship with a more-recent international anti-nuclear effort, the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW).

As countries are currently exploring how to reinforce the NPT, one potential way to strengthen global cooperation on nuclear weapons is through the TPNW–-but not all countries agree on that course. 

The NPT review conference had normally been held every five years but had been postponed four times because of the COVID-19 pandemic. This year, it is being held on the 77th anniversary of the United States dropping atomic bombs on the Japanese cities of Hiroshima and Nagasaki.

The review conference, which was initially scheduled to mark the 50th anniversary of the NPT in 2020, will run through Aug. 26. The biggest challenge for the states parties is agreeing on a final document by consensus.

The last review conference in 2015 failed to issue such a document. 

SIMILAR TREATIES, BUT NOT SO SIMILAR

While in essence the two treaties share similar goals, the TPNW aims at the total elimination of nuclear weapons and to reinforce the disarmament aspect of the NPT.

However, some countries argued that the TPNW may lead to “forum shopping” and that some states signatories to the TPNW would stop adhering to the NPT’s disarmament principles.

“The NPT does recognize the TPNW as the cornerstone of the nuclear disarmament and nonproliferation regime," said Alexander Kmentt of Austria, who chaired the First Meeting of States Parties to the TPNW held in June in Vienna. "And it underscores the centrality of the NPT and the continued commitment of all NPT states parties to the full and effective implementation.”

Kmentt made the remarks on Aug. 4 at a side event titled, “The relationship between the NPT and TPNW.”

The TPNW is a treaty that came into force in January 2021 after 50 countries ratified it. Kmentt has repeatedly emphasized that the TPNW complements the NPT. However, no nuclear weapons state has so far ratified the TPNW.

In contrast, the NPT has been joined by 191 countries including the nuclear weapon states United States, Britain, France, China and Russia.

In the general debate speeches at the NPT review conference held the first week of August, many speakers praised the entry into force of the TPNW and the achievements of the First Meeting of the States Parties.

“Obviously the TPNW is something that has happened. So I don’t think we should be avoiding acknowledging its reality in the NPT. This would be a very bad sign,” Kmentt told The Asahi Shimbun.

He hopes that the TPNW will be referred to in the outcome documents of the NPT review conference.

Germany, which is a NATO member and hosts U.S. nuclear weapons on its soil, also mentioned the TPNW in its speech at the NPT conference. 

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock called on countries to “make an effort to overcome polarization and give equal weight to the views of countries of the North and the South in the NPT community.”

She added, “It is against this background that Germany has decided to become an observer to the first conference on the TPNW.”

Meanwhile, the five nuclear weapon states and permanent Security Council members--the United States, Russia, China, Britain and France--all said in unison that a nuclear war cannot be won and must never be fought, but none mentioned the TPNW

In his speech. Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida, one of the highest-level officials who traveled to the conference and who relies on the U.S. nuclear umbrella, also made no mention of the TPNW, prompting some atomic bomb survivors, or hibakusha, to express their disappointment.

Wendin Smith, director of NATO’s Arms Control, Disarmament, and Weapons of Mass Destruction Nonproliferation Center, described the NPT as “the best framework toward the goal of a world without nuclear weapons,” but added, “The TPNW is not an effective tool for reaching this goal. As long as nuclear weapons exist, NATO will remain a nuclear alliance.”

BEST OF BOTH WORLDS?

Can the two treaties be “the best of both worlds” in advancing nuclear disarmament and can nations cooperate with each other? Considering the path forward will be a challenge for the future.

Kairat Umarov, Kazakhstan's ambassador to the U.N. office in Vienna, attended the event on the relationship between the two international treaties on Aug. 4.

“What is lacking here today is probably the action," Umarov said. "How can we fulfill that?”

He pointed out that they needed to bring “the humanitarian aspect” to the “very political discussion we are having at the NPT.” And he concluded his speech in this way: “I think the TPNW gives us all these opportunities to talk, to act legally and to generate public interest”

In addition to Japan, Switzerland and Fiji sent top government officials to the NPT conference.

Swiss President Ignazio Cassis, in an interview with The Asahi Shimbun, said that the “nuclear threat” alluded to by Russia in connection with its invasion of Ukraine “woke us up from our quiet lives and had the effect of resetting our political agenda.”

If Europe thought the nuclear threat was behind them, the recent actions of Russia in Ukraine brought the issue back to the forefront.

Switzerland, a neutral country, is not a member of either the European Union or NATO; it is a signatory to the NPT but hasn’t ratified the TPNW yet.

Cassis said that before ratifying the treaty, he wants to ensure that the TPNW will make the NPT stronger.

“We will see how beneficial the still young TPNW will be for the NPT, or whether it will have a negative impact on the NPT,” Cassis told The Asahi Shimbun.

The Swiss Parliament has issued a study on the TPNW and its potential impact on the NPT that is due to be published in 2023.

According to Cassis, “one of the roles of the NPT is to bridge the gap between nuclear weapon states and non-nuclear weapon states.”

Considering that no nuclear power has so far signed the TPNW, he worries this new treaty may not do the same.

(This article was written by Stephanie Fillion and Gakushi Fujiwara.)