Photo/Illutration A map detailing the development of the war in Ukraine posted on the Defense Ministry's website (Kaigo Narisawa)

The Defense Ministry is studying the war in Ukraine to prepare for Japan’s response to such an invasion and to decide what equipment an enhanced defense budget should focus on, sources said.

The ministry has released parts of its analysis on its website and Twitter account.

“We are working to collect and analyze information concerning trends while focusing on the impact (of the war) on the Indo-Pacific region, and hope to share them as much as possible,” the ministry said on a website page titled, “Related to Ukraine.”

The page contains a map detailing the course of the war, the number of combatants dispatched and the number of missiles fired by the day.

According to Yoshihide Yoshida, chief of staff of the Ground Self-Defense Force, the ministry is collecting and analyzing such data mainly to use them as a “lesson” for Japan’s defense against an attack.

A source connected to the ministry said such activities “serve as a useful reference to think about Japan’s strategies and fighting tactics.”

The study has shown that anti-tank and anti-aircraft missiles as well as drones have been effective in Ukraine’s counterattacks against Russia.

The Ukrainians have also asked countries to supply them with heavy-armored tanks and vehicles, as well as fighter jets.

Prime Minister Fumio Kishida told visiting U.S. President Joe Biden on May 23 that Japan will “increase its defense spending substantially.”

The Diet has discussed the increase as well.

The battles between Russia and Ukraine have provided a clue on the kind of equipment Japan will likely acquire with the bigger budget, a ministry source said.

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has been characterized as a conflict between modern militaries and a hybrid war involving cyberattacks and spreading disinformation.

But what has actually influenced the war situation so far is “old-fashioned equipment,” a senior official of the ministry said.

As for whether the war in Europe could spread and directly impact Japan, the dominant view among ministry officials is that “Russia has been weakened and can’t afford to invade Hokkaido.”

The ministry is expected to maintain its “southwest shift” that focuses on gathering troops mainly in Okinawa Prefecture to keep an eye on the increasing maritime activities of China in the area.

Another ministry source noted that at least 30 countries have provided military aid to Ukraine.

“The burden of the United States has been relatively reduced,” the source said. “The degree of U.S. involvement in the area surrounding Japan will increase.”

According to the ministry’s analysis so far, Russia has a record of repeated military failures in Ukraine, inside sources said.

These failures include Russia’s underestimation of Ukrainian troops, as well as its decision to initiate a full-scale invasion with tanks and other vehicles that became clogged on the roads.

It appears that the Russian military decision-makers and their ground, marine and air forces lacked coordination, the sources said.

“A battle will not work out well without systemization of the combat power and the ability of commanders of each level to make a situational judgment,” Yoshida said at a news conference on June 2.

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