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A new megaquake scenario for Tokyo warns that more than 4.5 million people would be unable to return home in its aftermath, temporary shelters would quickly fill and residents of high-rise buildings would face particular challenges.

The Tokyo metropolitan government’s scenario, drawn up and released on May 25, specifies events that can occur after an earthquake, in addition to an estimate of deaths, injuries and damaged buildings, among other figures.

“I hope people will use their imaginations and prepare for what could happen in their own environment,” said Naoshi Hirata, a professor emeritus of seismology at the University of Tokyo, who is a core member of the metropolitan government’s panel of experts on disaster prevention.

The scenario provides situations--such as where people start living as evacuees or are unable to return home--in chronological order, such as moments after a major earthquake, one day after the earthquake, three days after the earthquake and one week after the earthquake.

Officials said providing such a scenario will help people better understand the potential situation in Tokyo following an earthquake than just by looking at the numbers.

They hope the scenario will help people be better aware of various risks and prepare for a major earthquake.

“Ultimately, it is important for each and every person to look at the scenario and to think,” Hirata said.

The scenario says residents of “tower mansions,” superhigh-rise residential buildings, will face particular risks.

There has been an increase of 30 percent of such buildings in the past 10 years in Tokyo, exceeding 600, according to the metropolitan government.

Such buildings are seismic-resistant and may not be badly damaged by a megaquake.

However, residents need to devise effective disaster prevention plans, such as how to communicate with each other and confirm each other's safety.

Securing electricity in the event of a blackout will be critical for residents of such buildings, too.

Those who live on middle to high floors will also have difficulty having food and water brought to them if the elevator shuts down.

The scenario also urges temporary evacuation shelters to inspect their operations again to prepare for situations such as a crowd of people pouring in, air conditioners breaking and other challenges.

In reality, there are not enough temporary shelters in Tokyo to take in people unable to return home.

In the scenario, it is estimated up to 4.53 million people would be 10 kilometers or more from their homes should a megaquake hit and would be unable to return home.

Of these, it is estimated that 660,000 will have nowhere to stay.

The figure includes shoppers in busy districts.

In Tokyo, 1,155 facilities are currently designated as a temporary shelter for such people.

The capacity is 443,000, however, meaning about 220,000 people would have no facilities to turn to in the scenario.

“We need cooperation from private companies to fill the void,” said a metropolitan government official.

Currently, 632 private facilities, such as commercial facilities, company headquarters and theaters, have signed an agreement with one or more ward offices to be a shelter.

But officials have struggled to get more private facilities involved.

The metropolitan government has started working to grasp the challenges private facilities face in serving as temporary shelters in the event of a megaquake and will create a detailed manual in fiscal 2022.

(This article was written by Nobuaki Tanaka and Shin Kasahara.)

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