Photo/Illutration The head office of Dai-ichi Life Insurance Co. in Tokyo’s Chiyoda Ward (Asahi Shimbun file photo)

In his essay titled "Kuma-san to Chu-hai" (Kuma-san and shochu-based cocktails), author Komimasa Tanaka (1925-2000) wrote about his favorite bar, where the prices of chu-hai and other drinks were shown on pieces of paper stuck on the walls.

But when he went in one day, the walls were bare.

Asked why, the proprietor, Kuma-san, replied, "We've switched to a floating-rate system."

On Tanaka's next visit a few days later, Kuma-san announced that he was charging higher prices that day.

"I just lost big on off-track horse-race betting, that's why," he explained.

For patrons, that's a tough one to swallow. But in the proprietor's mind, there may have been a "legitimate" pricing formula of sorts that was based on the outcome of his horse betting.

In the insurance business, actuaries are professionals who project insurance payout probabilities to determine insurance premiums. Drawing on their expertise in mathematical statistics and other disciplines, they design policies.

However, the contagiousness of the novel coronavirus has apparently thrown the experts off.

The Asahi Shimbun reported on Sept. 2 that Dai-ichi Life Insurance Co. has stopped selling COVID-19 insurance.

For a premium of 980 yen for three months, this policy was designed to pay 100,000 yen to every policy holder who is diagnosed with COVID-19.

But the recent spikes in infections must have rendered this policy nonviable.

The calculations based on older strains of the virus apparently didn't work for the delta strain. And predicting what lies in store is probably harder than horse betting.

When one wave subsides, the next wave surges, even while we keep pinning our hopes on continued mass vaccinations.

The mu variant, which may render vaccines less effective, has been confirmed in Japan. This is the 12th variant identified by letters of the Greek alphabet.

And no one can predict whether new variants will stop emerging after the last and 24th letter has been used up.

--The Asahi Shimbun, Sept. 3

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Vox Populi, Vox Dei is a popular daily column that takes up a wide range of topics, including culture, arts and social trends and developments. Written by veteran Asahi Shimbun writers, the column provides useful perspectives on and insights into contemporary Japan and its culture.

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