Photo/Illutration Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga speaks to reporters at his office on Sept. 1. (Koichi Ueda)

How low can the Cabinet's approval rating fall and still be considered within a safe range?

There exists a formula, attributed to Mikio Aoki, a retired Liberal Democratic Party lawmaker who coordinated party affairs in the Upper House in his active years.

Known as "Aoki's Law," it postulates that the administration is in serious trouble when the sum of the Cabinet's job approval rating and the ruling party's support rate falls below 50 percent.

That happened to the LDP Cabinets of Yoshiro Mori and Taro Aso, as well as the Democratic Party of Japan Cabinet of Yoshihiko Noda, right before the dissolution of the Lower House.

In each of the general elections that followed, the ruling party lost significant numbers of seats, and the setbacks suffered by the Aso and Noda administrations resulted in changes of government.

According to an opinion poll conducted by The Asahi Shimbun in early August, the approval ratings for the Cabinet of Yoshihide Suga and for the LDP were 28 percent and 32 percent, respectively, bringing the sum to 60.

In the latest Mainichi Shimbun poll, however, the corresponding numbers were 26, 26 and 52.

The Suga Cabinet is getting close to the critical benchmark, and that perfectly well explains the recent restlessness of LDP lawmakers.

One point of note is that younger members make up about 40 percent of the LDP's Lower House roster. Dubbed "Abe children," they consist of first-term to third-term electees, and many fear they won't make it this time unless some tailwind blows.

This is the backdrop of the political turmoil that has started with the LDP presidential election drawing near.

The party's "habatsu" faction bosses, who installed the Suga administration, want him to continue. But younger members are growing restive.

And Suga himself appears far from eager to challenge his rivals to a verbal duel to win re-election fair and square. Instead, he is trying something new by reshuffling party executives.

Suga reportedly even toyed with the idea, albeit briefly, of dissolving the Lower House to postpone the presidential election.

The prime minister seems to have a proclivity to run away from debate. And he continues to flee from opposition parties' demand to convene an extraordinary session of the Diet.

--The Asahi Shimbun, Sept. 2

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Vox Populi, Vox Dei is a popular daily column that takes up a wide range of topics, including culture, arts and social trends and developments. Written by veteran Asahi Shimbun writers, the column provides useful perspectives on and insights into contemporary Japan and its culture.

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