Photo/Illutration Toshihiro Nikai, secretary-general of the Liberal Democratic Party, addresses party members as the results of the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election come in on the night of July 4. On his right is Ichiro Kamoshita, head of the LDP’s Tokyo chapter. (Toshiyuki Hayashi)

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party acknowledged it was dealt a serious blow by failing to capture a majority in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly with its ally, Komeito, in the July 4 election.

The LDP did become the leading party again in the 127-member assembly by winning 33 seats, eight more than four years ago. Komeito retained its pre-election strength of 23 seats.

But the outcome has made it impossible for the ruling bloc to control the assembly, the “minimum” target set when official campaigning kicked off on June 25.

“It was a crushing defeat,” a Cabinet member said of the election results.

Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga told reporters on July 5 that he humbly accepts the fact that the ruling coalition could not gain a majority.

“The LDP headquarters and its Tokyo chapter will analyze the results and prepare for next election,” he said.

The LDP was initially optimistic about its prospects.

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The Asahi Shimbun

Its rival, Tomin First no Kai (Tokyoites First), a regional party for which Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike serves as special adviser, appeared to have lost much of its appeal since the previous election in 2017, when it became the dominant party in the assembly.

Voter turnout was 42.40 percent on July 4, down from 51.28 percent in the 2017 election.

A seasoned LDP Lower House member said Suga had asked if the party could garner 50 seats.

Some pre-election surveys indicated that the LDP would likely capture around 55 seats.

“The prime minister may have been concerned about the outcome of the assembly election because it is considered a prelude to the upcoming Lower House election,” the lawmaker said.

But the tide quickly turned against the LDP when the campaign started.

New cases of COVID-19 began climbing again in the capital when the government lifted the state of emergency on June 21.

And only a few days before the election, when candidates were making their final appeals for votes, Suga’s government announced a shortage in supplies of COVID-19 vaccines.

A Lower House member of the LDP from a constituency in Tokyo said a local small-business operator decided not to support the party in the election over frustrations of being unable to book a vaccine shot.

Komeito members were also angered by the poor outlook for the vaccine rollout in the capital and elsewhere.

The novel coronavirus crisis made it impossible for Komeito to rely on its traditional election strategy of mobilizing members of Soka Gakkai, the nation’s largest lay Buddhist group that serves as the party’s power base, from across Japan to help its candidates in Tokyo.

“You have to explain when we can expect the vaccine supplies,” a senior Komeito official yelled at an official in charge of vaccine rollout at the prime minister’s office over the phone. “If you just suspend supplies without further explanation, it will have an impact on the metropolitan assembly election.”

Exacerbating the ruling bloc’s quandary, Koike, who had been hospitalized from June 22 to June 30 for fatigue, appeared in public on July 3 to support candidates from Tomin First no Kai.

Although she did not give speeches for them, her appearance alone was enough to devastate some LDP officials.

Many LDP politicians had believed that the popular governor would opt out of campaigning for Tomin First no Kai out of consideration for the Suga administration.

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Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike shows her support for Chiharu Araki, who leads Tomin First no Kai, on July 3 in the Tokyo metropolitan assembly election. (Rihito Karube)

They surmised that Koike would not make a move to irritate Suga because the metropolitan government needs to work closely with his administration to deal with the COVID-19 situation and prepare for the Tokyo Olympics.

“She outwitted us,” an LDP member of the Lower House from a Tokyo constituency said with irritation.

Referring to the LDP’s disappointing showing in the assembly election, a longtime Diet member of the party voiced concerns about the LDP’s chances in the national Lower House election in autumn.

“My colleagues may begin wondering how they will fare with Suga as party leader,” the legislator said.

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