Photo/Illutration Shigeru Omi, chairman of the government panel of experts dealing with the novel coronavirus pandemic, meets with reporters on May 21 after the panel approved including Okinawa Prefecture under the state of emergency. (Ryo Kato)

Health experts are cautioning against lifting an already extended state of emergency at the end of the month, putting the government in a tight corner as it confronts having to make final preparations for the Tokyo Olympics in late July while curbs remain in place.

Restrictions are due to stay until May 31 unless the government heeds the advice and decides on an extension.

The panel of experts advising the government on measures to deal with the pandemic approved including Okinawa Prefecture under the state of emergency from May 23 until June 20.

After the meeting, Kaori Muto, a professor of medical sociology at the University of Tokyo’s Institute of Medical Science, said she thought it would “be difficult” to lift the state of emergency for the nine other prefectures.

In approving the measure, experts warned that indicators regarding the spread of infections had to drop from the most serious stage 4 and be moving toward stage 2 before the state of emergency could be lifted.

One indicator is the number of new cases over the course of a week per 100,000 residents. Any prefecture that confirms 25 or more new cases is considered to be in stage 4.

Statistics compiled by the Cabinet Secretariat as of May 19 showed that none of the nine prefectures were close to bringing the figure to under 25 and that some localities had recorded high numbers. Hokkaido, for example, averaged 74 cases, while Okinawa Prefecture reported 64 and Fukuoka Prefecture 61.

Hospital bed usage for COVID-19 patients was also at stage 4 levels for most of the prefectures under the state of emergency.

Health exports also voiced extreme concern about mutant strains of the novel coronavirus.

A study by the Tokyo Metropolitan Institute of Medical Science found that it took Osaka Prefecture around five weeks to start bringing infection numbers down after quasi-emergency measures were announced on April 5.

This was thought to be due to the British strain then spreading in Osaka. Under the third wave of infections before mutant strains started emerging, cases began declining two to three weeks earlier.

Alarm is now being raised about the Indian mutant strain amid fears that it could replace the British mutant strain and trigger another round of surging cases if not brought under control quickly.

“It will be important to maintain as small a wave of new infections as possible until vaccines reach the general population,” Shigeru Omi, the chairman of the experts’ panel, said at the May 21 session of the Lower House Health, Labor and Welfare Committee.

The tight situation regarding medical care in many of the prefectures now under the state of emergency has forced the government to confront having to fine-tune final preparations for the Tokyo Games while the capital and neighboring prefectures remain subject to the restrictions.

If the state of emergency is extended for Tokyo, it will likely be for two to three weeks.

The authorities also worry whether the general public will welcome going ahead with the Olympics while so many of their daily activities are being restrained.

(This article was written by Kai Ichino, Yuki Edamatsu and Keishi Nishimura.)

Related News