Photo/Illutration A woman responds to a street survey in Tokyo about attending welcome and farewell parties during the novel coronavirus pandemic. (The Asahi Shimbun)

The global epidemic called Spanish influenza, which began spreading in Japan in 1918 and claimed about 400,000 lives, came in three waves.

Each wave had its own characteristics, and the number of people who died in the first wave was apparently negligible, according to a book on the subject by Akira Hayami (1929-2019), a scholar of historical demography.

The disease later turned into a very grave health threat. It became highly infectious in the second wave, and the mortality rate peaked in the third wave.

“Influenza has brought an age of terror. Even if you’ve coughed only once, don’t think of going out,” a newspaper of the time warned.

Hayami theorized that differences in the three waves owed to mutations of the virus.

The novel coronavirus pandemic has made us amply aware of the extent to which a virus can mutate.

A more contagious variant, first detected in Britain, has spread in the Kansai region and started affecting other areas.

Tokyo, as well as Kyoto and Okinawa prefectures, will come under central government quasi-emergency measures on April 12 to battle the pandemic.

Akin to declaring “a state of partial emergency,” these measures primarily focus on shortening the business hours of eating and drinking establishments.

Authorities plan to urge the public to refrain from crossing prefectural borders, but I’m not sure if these steps will be sufficient to keep variant strains in check.

Those who have managed to escape the pandemic with their families may feel they scored a “success” of sorts over the past year or so.

It is human nature to want to believe that it will be possible to stay safe in the days ahead because they have come through unscathed so far.

But holding onto a past success when the situation has worsened can be a recipe for disaster.

I don’t believe anyone has the luxury of letting their guard down against the novel coronavirus. I wonder why we keep hearing about bad examples being set by the government.

The discovery that health ministry officials attended a big farewell party long into the night still stinks to high heaven.

--The Asahi Shimbun, April 10

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Vox Populi, Vox Dei is a popular daily column that takes up a wide range of topics, including culture, arts and social trends and developments. Written by veteran Asahi Shimbun writers, the column provides useful perspectives on and insights into contemporary Japan and its culture.

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