Troubling trends are emerging regarding the record-setting surge in new COVID-19 cases that has fueled debate between health experts and government officials on whether to issue another state of emergency.

Prime Minister Yoshihide Suga on Nov. 13 told reporters he was not prepared to declare a state of emergency, adding that the government’s Go To campaigns to stimulate tourism and consumption would not be reviewed at the current time.

The previous day, 1,662 new COVID-19 cases were reported around the nation, exceeding the earlier daily record of 1,607 set on Aug. 7.

The ratio of newly infected elderly people, who are more prone to developing severe symptoms, has been increasing in the latest resurgence.

And hospital beds used for treating COVID-19 patients are filling up to disturbing levels in some prefectures.

Shigeru Omi, chairman of the government panel of experts, said on Nov. 12 that now was “the last chance” to take measures to restrain a further spread of novel coronavirus infections.

Kiyoshi Nagase, president of the Hokkaido Medical Association, also raised the alarm even before the nationwide record number was tallied on Nov. 12.

“We have entered a third wave of infections,” Nagase said at a news conference earlier in the day. “Depending on the circumstances, I hope serious thought is given toward reviewing the Go To programs.”

However, Yasutoshi Nishimura, the state minister in charge of economic revitalization who is the government’s point man in dealing with the health scare, also said the current situation did not warrant another state of emergency.

Although Nishimura said “the trend is moving toward a large wave,” he stopped short of using the term “third wave.”

Hokkaido on Nov. 12 reported a record high 236 new COVID-19 cases, fueling calls for its removal from the government’s Go To Travel campaign that subsidizes domestic travel around the country.

But the economy of the northern main island depends largely on tourism.

Osamu Shimada, president of Hokkaido Railway Co., said the effects from the Go To programs for traveling and dining out had been large and hoped that they would continue for the time being.

According to the health ministry, 7 percent of beds in Hokkaido hospitals devoted to treating COVID-19 patients were filled in mid-October. But over the past month, 54 percent of such hospital beds were in use, figures compiled by The Asahi Shimbun showed.

That is more than double the 25-percent benchmark set by the central government for raising the alert level to stage 3, when a surge of infections is occurring and preparations should be made for declaring a state of emergency.

Osaka Prefecture has also seen a sharp increase in the use of hospital beds, with capacity over the past month exceeding 30 percent. In Tokyo, 41 percent of the hospital beds were filled.

Patients in younger age brackets accounted for a large percentage of new cases during the second wave of infections in the summer. But seniors are now increasingly being confirmed infected.

In Tokyo, 7.3 percent of new COVID-19 patients during the week until Aug. 10 were 65 and older. The ratio increased to 13.5 percent in the week until Nov. 9.

In Osaka Prefecture, those 60 and older accounted for 13 percent of all new cases between July 26 and Aug. 8 at the peak of the second wave, but the figure doubled to 26 percent for the Nov. 1-10 period.

The ratio of positive polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and other tests has also been rising in various areas.

In Hokkaido, the ratio was 10.3 percent while Aichi Prefecture, where Nagoya is located, had a 9.2 percent positive rate.

An increase in the positive rate may mean that the scale of infections in a given area cannot be accurately assessed because testing is not keeping pace with actual infections.

Norio Omagari, director of the Disease Control and Prevention Center under the National Center for Global Health and Medicine, said Tokyo was nearing a point where the alert level should be raised to the highest red level.

Omagari, a member of the Tokyo metropolitan government’s panel of experts, said he was particularly concerned by the sharp increase in new cases in recent weeks.

The daily average in new cases for the week ending on Nov. 11 was about 244, a 47.7 percent increase over the previous week when the daily average was about 165.

Omagari said if that trend continued, the daily average in four weeks’ time would reach about 1,160.

“Some people may think that figure is too large or that it is some kind of fantasy, but a similar situation occurred in the summer, and there was a sharp increase in patients based on those weekly figures,” Omagari said.