Photo/Illutration Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga speaks at his Sept. 1 news conference as government spokesman. (Kotaro Ebara)

Chief Cabinet Secretary Yoshihide Suga effectively secured his standing as Japan’s next prime minister even before he formally announced his candidacy for the ruling Liberal Democratic Party’s presidential election.

At a news conference on Sept. 2 apart from the usual twice-a-day events held in his role as top government spokesman, Suga said, “I am prepared to use all of my abilities to continue with the policies laid out by (the Abe administration) and work to push them forward.”

Because of the LDP’s overwhelming majorities in both chambers of the Diet, its president is guaranteed of being elected the next prime minister when a special Diet session is convened later this month.

On Sept. 2, the LDP faction led by Wataru Takeshita, the former LDP General Council chairman, agreed to back Suga in the presidential election.

That means all five major LDP factions will support Suga.

Two exceptions are the factions led by Fumio Kishida, the LDP policy chief, and Shigeru Ishiba, a former secretary-general, who announced their candidacies on Sept. 1.

The presidential election campaign will formally begin on Sept. 7 and the vote held on Sept. 14. That is the shortest interval since the 2001 party election that chose Junichiro Koizumi.

The Sept. 14 election will involve only LDP Diet members and representatives of the party’s prefectural chapters.

Each chapter will have three votes, but with the five LDP factions expressing support for Suga, he will have more than a majority of votes even without taking into consideration how the chapters decide.

Suga will benefit from LDP Secretary-General Toshihiro Nikai’s decision to brush aside demands that rank-and-file party members be allowed to vote in the election.

After Prime Minister Shinzo Abe announced his resignation late last month, Nikai repeatedly said that a simplified election was needed to avoid a political vacuum while the nation continues to fight the novel coronavirus pandemic.

During discussions in the General Council meeting on Sept. 1 about the format of the presidential election, one participant explained that it would take about two months to prepare and hold an election in which all members and support groups could take part.

After less than two hours, debate was cut off and the decision made on the simplified poll.
The decision not to throw open the vote to all rank-and-file members was clearly meant to prevent Ishiba from winning.

Public opinion polls taken over the weekend showed Ishiba is clearly more popular than both Suga and Kishida.

One veteran LDP lawmaker close to Suga said Ishiba would win the party member poll in a landslide if they were allowed to vote.

In the absence of those votes, Suga now appears a shoo-in to overwhelmingly win the presidential election.

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