A government panel of experts grappling with the novel coronavirus pandemic on July 31 released a draft of a new four-stage classification to deal with COVID-19 infections.

Shigeru Omi, the chairman of the panel, said at a news conference that Tokyo, Osaka and Aichi prefectures were in the second stage of observing a gradual increase in new cases.

He said the classification system was intended to spur government officials to take swift action when the first signs of a region approaching a higher stage were noticed.

The fourth stage would mean a region was witnessing an explosion of new infections.

But, Omi stated: “If a state of emergency declaration was issued after a prefecture entered the fourth stage, it would be too late. If a declaration is to be issued, it should be when the first signs of such a possibility arose.”

The panel of experts will work on specific numerical indicators to be submitted to the government by next week at the earliest.

Among the indicators being looked at are the number of hospital beds available for those with serious symptoms, the number of new cases affecting those aged 60 and older, the number of people being tested to confirm COVID-19 infections and the ratio of positive results.

It remains to be seen if the central government will go along with the release of such indicators as officials have long balked at any system that would automatically lead to certain measures being implemented. This, they contend, would deprive the government of the chance to make a political decision about whether such action was really needed.

After the final phase of the national state of emergency was lifted on May 25, the central government asked prefectural authorities across the country to come up with their own measures and standards to use to determine if a second wave had hit.

But with differences in testing availability and medical care structures across prefectures all but erased, the central government decided the time had come for a unified classification system in dealing with the pandemic.

In the first stage, a region would only have sporadic cases. The second stage is defined as one with a gradual increase while the third stage means the area is witnessing a sudden surge.

Prefectural governments will be allowed to determine the stage they believe they face.

According to the classification, no prefecture wants to find itself in stage four because that would mean infection clusters were occurring simultaneously.

Such a scenario suggests that many senior citizens and those with underlying health problems were being infected and developing serious symptoms, with huge numbers of fatalities as a result. The medical care structure in such a prefecture would have all but collapsed by then.

The measures proposed by the panel to be taken when signs emerge that a prefecture might be approaching the third stage were to limit the number of customers at bars and restaurants and prohibit movement across prefectural borders to and from regions where there is a large increase in new cases.

If a prefecture showed signs of reaching the fourth stage, the measures to be taken in addition to declaring a state of emergency would be to close schools and order events to be canceled.

Panel members admitted to difficulties in devising measures to be used because of differences in the number of new cases between major urban areas and less populated rural areas.

“To be honest, I realize that for prefectures where new cases are rising rapidly, some sort of action is needed now,” said one member.

Other experts accused the panel of being too vague in its recommendations.

Atsuo Hamada, a professor at Tokyo Medical University who specializes in travel medicine, touched upon Tokyo and other major urban areas defined as being in the second stage.

“With infections increasing in those areas, there was an insufficient explanation about what basis was used in making that classification,” he said.

Hamada noted that medical institutions have been battered by the prolonged fallout from the pandemic and the financial difficulties arising from it.

“We could face an ‘infection explosion’ in no time unless measures that are tougher than those during the first wave are implemented to prevent a spread of infections and provide support to medical institutions,” he said.

(Ayako Nakada contributed to this article.)