Photo/Illutration Takaji Wakita, far right, the head of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases who chairs the government panel of experts, attends an April 1 news conference along with Shigeru Omi, the panel vice chair who is also president of the Japan Community Healthcare Organization. (Naoko Kawamura)

A government panel on April 1 called for immediate action to prevent medical systems in major urban areas from falling into dysfunction even before a potential explosive surge in new coronavirus infections.

Pointing to the five prefectures of Tokyo, Kanagawa, Aichi, Osaka and Hyogo, Takaji Wakita, the head of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, who chairs the panel of experts, said, “Those prefectures will be asked to implement comprehensive measures either today or tomorrow.”

The panel’s recommendation defined an explosive surge in infections as one in which new infections double every two or three days and continue at that pace.

While the panel said there was no area of Japan now experiencing such rapid increases in new cases, it pointed out the large increases in recent days, particularly in major urban areas.

The panel said that given that trend, the medical systems in those areas could fall into dysfunction even before an explosive surge occurs.

As one way to prevent such disruptions, the panel suggested offering patients with relatively minor symptoms from the coronavirus to recuperate at home or while staying at another facility.

The government panel designated three groups according to the pace at which new infections are reported.

Prefectures that should be cautious about a rapid increase in infections are those where new infections over the latest week as well as cases in which the infection route is unclear have increased largely in comparison to the previous week.

Among the measures the panel recommended for such prefectures was to ask residents to remain at home while clearly stating a period over which that request would cover and to have residents avoid gatherings of 10 or more as well as parties with many people present.

Those prefectures should also consider closing all schools within their jurisdiction.

Between March 21 and 30, the number of new cases in Tokyo doubled every 2.5 days. And while many of those are cases in which the infection route can be pinned down, the panel said there was a need to carefully follow the trend to determine if it is only a temporary one.

At an April 1 news conference, Wakita said that both Tokyo and Osaka fell in the group of prefectures that should be cautious about a large increase in infections.

The second group are prefectures where the pace at which new infections increases falls within a specified range. For those prefectures, residents are advised to refrain from indoor gatherings of 50 or more people.

The last group are prefectures where there are no new infections over the past week. In those prefectures, residents would be allowed to use outdoor sports or cultural facilities as well as take part in events where the number of participants is known as long as measures to prevent infection are implemented.

The panel said each prefecture would be responsible for deciding which group it belongs to, but added that the health ministry could be called upon for advice in making such a decision.

The panel’s recommendation said that children played a very minor role in the spread of the infections and recommended that local communities make decisions about closing or resuming schools based on the spread of the coronavirus in their specific area.

The panel continued to call on all residents to avoid unventilated indoor spaces where large groups of people gather and to maintain adequate social distancing. The panel said such awareness would not only reduce the infection risk for that individual but could also help save the lives of others.

It suggested refraining from going to bars, restaurants, karaoke parlors and live houses where close contact with staff is likely.