Photo/Illutration The Asahi Shimbun

The government would seemingly have people believe the worst of the COVID-19 pandemic is over, but reality tells a different story: The rate of infections is now back to levels recorded in April when a six-week state of emergency was declared.

The recent surge, the government contends, is due mainly to a significant  increase in individuals taking polymerase chain reaction (PCR) and other tests to confirm if they are infected, the general belief being that more tests are bound to lead to a drop in the rate of positive results.

The number of those taking tests has increased in Tokyo. The daily average over a seven-day period exceeded 2,000 on July 2 and by July 13 the average had topped 3,000.

But while the rate of positive results remained under 1 percent in late May after the state of emergency was lifted, it gradually increased, reaching 3.9 percent on July 1 and 6.7 percent on July 21.

The rate in Osaka reached 13 percent on July 24, a record for the period after May 21 when the state of emergency was no longer in effect.

The average over a seven-day period was 8 percent on July 24, a figure approaching that of late March when COVID-19 infections were spreading rapidly.

At a July 22 news conference, Yasutoshi Nishimura, the state minister in charge of economic revitalization who is also the government’s point man in dealing with the novel coronavirus pandemic, explained that the increase in new cases was due to the increase in those taking tests.

Yasutaka Mizuno, who heads the Global Healthcare Clinic in Tokyo, pointed out that one possible explanation for the higher positive result ratio is the mass testing of employees at bars and restaurants who inevitably come into close contact with customers.

He said the increase in individuals whose infection routes have not been traced, as well as the spread of infections across more age groups, indicates that the novel coronavirus may be spreading in localized communities, even if the rate is not particularly rapid.

There has also been an uptick in those developing serious symptoms.

Over the one-week period until July 23, the number of such patients in Tokyo increased from 10 to 21, while the figure in Osaka rose from four to 13.

The Tokyo metropolitan government has prepared 100 hospital beds to care for those with serious symptoms. But with COVID-19, serious symptoms normally develop about 10 days after the initial infection.

Mizuno said there was still a possibility of an increase in those with serious symptoms.

“There is a need for measures while looking ahead to two weeks in the future,” he said. “Those with serious symptoms tend to remain hospitalized for extended periods, meaning that the available hospital beds could be filled very quickly.”

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, meeting briefly with reporters on July 24, noted the recent increase in new infections but said the situation did not warrant issuing another state of emergency.

Abe stated that with the availability of greater testing the government would continue with its policy of early detection and treatment to control the spread of infections.

He called on the public to take obvious precautions during the four-day weekend to prevent a spread of infections by avoiding congested and unventilated locations where people are in close contact.

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