Photo/Illutration Shigeru Omi, vice chairman of the government panel of experts, explains some of the measures taken to deal with the novel coronavirus at a May 29 news conference. (Reina Kitamura)

The government's decision to declare a state of emergency for Tokyo and six prefectures on April 7 came a week after COVID-19 infection rates had peaked, according to an expert panel advising the government on the health crisis.

In assessing the effectiveness of measures taken to date, the experts acknowledged May 29 that although belated, the decision helped curb an increase in infections.

The members estimated dates of infection based on the fact that positive confirmations are usually made about two weeks after infection.

By calculating back from the dates on which reports were filed confirming infection, they estimated that the peak of new infections was around April 1.

Prime Minister Shinzo Abe declared a state of emergency for seven prefectures on April 7, and extended it nationwide a week later.

The panel also said measures taken to prevent cluster infections had proved effective.

While many cases were due to people gathering in unventilated, congested venues where they were in close contact with others, it noted that subsequent requests by local governments to avoid such risky behavior helped to limit infections.

The panel said the April 7 declaration of a state of emergency was especially helpful in containing the spread of infections in areas outside of major metropolitan areas as travel was restricted and most people stayed indoors or observed social distancing when they went out.

The number of daily infections remained under 50 until around March 10, but then soon increased rapidly.

A study by the National Institute of Infectious Diseases said there was a high possibility that the coronavirus spread from mid-March from travelers and Japanese nationals returning from European destinations.

The experts’ panel made no assessment of the measures taken then to restrict entry into the nation.

However, Masaya Yamato, who heads the infectious diseases center at Rinku General Medical Center in Izumisano, Osaka Prefecture, lamented that steps were not taken earlier.

“From about mid-March, there was an increase in patients whose infection routes could not be traced, although the virus was likely brought in from abroad," Yamato said. "Those infections filled the beds at our facility. Travel restrictions on flights from Europe, where infections were spreading, should have been implemented earlier.”

The Rinku General Medical Center is located close to Kansai International Airport.

The panel also looked into the measures and developments that helped to lead to a decrease in new infections.

On March 25, Tokyo Governor Yuriko Koike issued a call for local residents to refrain from nonessential outings and to stay home. Her request was triggered by the high number of people who went out during the three-day weekend from March 20 when the weather was fine.

The panel calculated that around 500 people became infected on March 25, and the numbers increased until reaching a peak on about April 1.

The March 30 death of popular comedian Ken Shimura due to pneumonia linked to the coronavirus scared the traveling public. Pedestrian traffic around the major train stations in Tokyo began dropping sharply overnight.

The government also decided on April 1 to expand a ban on entry for individuals arriving from 73 nations and regions.

The peak number of estimated infections was reached around that time and then began declining. The state of emergency led to a further decrease.

“Our study found that from around mid-March, more people, especially the elderly, began refraining from private outings," said Yu Hiroi, an associate professor at the University of Tokyo who specializes in urban disaster mitigation. "It seems fair to conclude that there was a gradual increase in the sense of crisis held by the public.”

He pointed to not only Shimura’s death, but also the March 24 decision to delay the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics by a year as having helped make people more aware of the dangers they faced.

(This article was written by Roku Goda, Kazuya Goto and Hisashi Hattori.)

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