Photo/Illutration Members of a Japanese government panel of experts explain steps to combat the new coronavirus at a news conference in Tokyo's Kasumigaseki district on March 9. (Shuichi Doi)

The coronavirus epidemic sweeping the world could still be raging a year from now, according to a government panel of experts trying to gauge whether the spread of infections across the nation will continue or be brought under control.

The panel chaired by Takaji Wakita, chief of the National Institute of Infectious Diseases, called March 9 for renewed efforts to strengthen basic strategies to combat the virus.

As an immediate step, it said health authorities need to identify and respond to clusters, or small groups, of infected people at an early stage with no letup in vigilance by the public in taking precautions against infection.

Two weeks ago, the panel forecast that one or two weeks would be on the brink of an explosive outbreak.

In its latest update, the panel said that as of now, “the spread of the infections (in Japan) is not at an explosive level and the country has managed to sustain itself to a certain degree."

As of March 9, coronavirus deaths in Japan totaled 16 with 1,218 people infected, according to a tally by The Asahi Shimbun.

Measures taken to date include the “state of emergency” announced Feb. 28 by the governor of Hokkaido and his decision to close about 1,700 schools. He also called on residents to avoid going out at weekends or traveling to other cities in the northernmost main island. Hokkaido continues to have the highest number of infections in Japan.

On Feb. 27, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe requested all schools to close from March 2 until the start of the spring break. Abe also asked organizers of big sports and cultural events to cancel or postpone them in what was seen as a critical juncture in efforts to stem the rise in new infections.

With regard to the effectiveness of those measures, the panel said it will pass judgment on March 19.

“We can’t measure the effectiveness of each request,” said Shigeru Omi, the panel's vice chairman. Omi is also president of the Japan Community Healthcare Organization. He said the measures need to be assessed comprehensively as one package.

The panel said the steps now in place need to be continued.

A senior health ministry official said late March 9 that organizers of planned sports and cultural events will be asked to continue to exercise self-restraint until March 19.

As for long-term prospects, the panel said the worldwide spread of the virus will not be contained completely. Even if the spread in Japan is contained, it warned that the virus could spread again in Japan from overseas in the future. For this reason, it said the precautions now in place should continue.

“Unlike the influenza virus, the coronavirus will not disappear when warmer weather hits," said Kazuhiro Tateda, president of the Japanese Association for Infectious Diseases. “Precautionary measures need to be maintained at least for a few months to half a year, or even beyond the year-end.”

But if the rate of infections starts to die down, the panel said self-restraint measures for sports, cultural and other events could be lifted step by step. However, it cautioned that a balance needs to be maintained between social and economic activities and prevention of the virus from spreading.

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