In the event of a major earthquake or powerful typhoon disrupting the Tokyo Olympics and Paralympics, officials are preparing a playbook to consult for calling off or postponing events.

The Tokyo Olympic organizing committee compiled the draft guidelines for the Tokyo Olympics, which open on July 24, and the Paralympics, which start on Aug. 25. 

Officials will apply the guidelines to call off the scheduled competitions in the event that a typhoon is forecast to hit areas around Tokyo with an alert Level 4 or higher on the 5-level emergency scale for flooding and landslides issued by local governments.

Another instance to call off events is when earthquakes measuring an upper 6 or higher on the Japanese seismic intensity scale of 7 are recorded.

The guidelines will be used by officials to decide on cancellations or postponements in the event of a natural disaster.

According to sources, when typhoons corresponding to an alert Level 4, meaning that all people must evacuate, or higher are expected, the committee will decide whether to call off the scheduled event. 

For example, a judgment will be made three days before competitions on the sea; two days before outdoor events; and the day prior for indoor competitions.

When a Level 3 alert is issued, meaning that the elderly and children should evacuate, or lower than an Alert 3 is expected to be issued, each venue will decide on whether to hold the respective competitions.

In the event of earthquakes, when a seismic intensity of upper 5 or higher in Tokyo’s 23 wards and a seismic intensity of lower 6 or higher outside of Tokyo’s 23 wards is recorded, a crisis management team will be set up by the committee.

If the quake measures an upper 6 or higher, competitions on the day won’t be held. If a tremor measuring upper 5 or higher occurs in Tokyo’s 23 wards and if a lower 6 or higher outside of Tokyo 23 wards, the Games will be suspended.

One hour and a half or so after the quake, officials at each venue will decide whether to restart or postpone the event after consulting with the crisis management team. If the quake measures a 4 or lower, each venue will make the decision, in principle.

When the Great East Japan Earthquake struck on March 11, 2011, an upper 5 was registered in Tokyo’s 23 wards.

When Typhoon No. 19 swept through eastern Japan in October 2019, many local governments issued an alert Level 4 or higher, which resulted in the cancellation of three matches in the Rugby World Cup being played around Japan.

The Tokyo Olympic organizing committee conducted hearings with executive members of the Rugby World Cup’s organizing committee to compile the draft guidelines.

Since the International Olympic Committee (IOC) stipulates in its Olympic Charter that the Olympic period should not extend beyond 16 days, the Games are not expected to extend past that duration. So, conducting indoor competitions without spectators is one of the possible options.

The Tokyo Olympic organizing committee also plans to soon compile a draft guideline in the event of an outbreak of an infectious disease or cyberterrorism.