In 2018, U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un held a historic summit in Singapore that many in the U.S. administration thought would become a diplomatic legacy.

However, one year later, one top White House aide said that the Singapore summit was a taboo subject now within the Trump administration.

The change in perception reflects the twists and turns taken by Trump in his dealings with North Korea and China.

When he was running for president in 2016, Trump prioritized taking a harsh stance toward China on trade issues. Conversely, he said almost nothing about North Korea before becoming president.

But after the inauguration, Trump began manifesting a sense of crisis toward North Korea which repeatedly launched ballistic missiles and conducted nuclear tests.

Due to these circumstances, Trump approached China and offered trade-related deals in an attempt to get diplomatic cooperation from China against North Korea.

In April 2017, in his first summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping, Trump tweeted that he offered more favorable trade terms for China in exchange for help in confronting the issue of North Korea.

China subsequently appeared to take a tougher stance toward North Korea as it intensified border patrols with its neighbor and also strengthened customs inspections regarding trade with Pyongyang.

Trump also began reviewing U.S. policy toward Pyongyang. In May 2017, he instructed Mike Pompeo, who was CIA director at the time, to set up a mission center for North Korea to handle matters toward that nation. The profiling of Kim started there.

According to a high-ranking U.S. administration official who has been involved in direct negotiations with North Korea, about 200 people who  had met Kim in person were interviewed for the profiling project. One conclusion reached in the analysis was that the North Korean leader held a fascination with Western culture and understood the advantages of economic development.

The report said there was a high possibility that North Korea would respond favorably if presented with a proposal from Washington that it would serve as a protectorate of the Kim regime in place of Beijing.

Based on that analysis, the Trump administration changed course and began moving toward direct talks with North Korea while also eliminating any influence Beijing had on the issue. One reason for the change was increasing distrust toward China.

H.R. McMaster, who was Trump’s national security adviser at the time, said, “China has made many promises over the years but rarely performed. The previous multi-party format did not work. We thought that bilateral engagement with North Korea had the best chance for success.”

BEIJING SEEKS TO REGAIN LOST GROUND

Andrew Kim was the representative of The Korea Mission Center and he also handled negotiations for the Trump administration. That made him visit Seoul and Pyongyang numerous times for talks between those two nations.

Kim is also related to Chung Eui-yong, who heads the national security office within the South Korean president’s office and has negotiated with North Korea. In March 2018, Chung handed Trump a message from Kim Jong Un that led to the first summit meeting later that year.

As direct talks between Washington and Pyongyang showed signs of progress, Beijing was also trying to regain lost ground.

In May 2018, Xi met Kim in Dalian, Liaoning province.

According to a U.S. diplomat who is knowledgeable about Chinese affairs, Xi agreed to provide assistance toward North Korea in the form of chemical fertilizer and food as well as provide support to increase agricultural production and tourists to North Korea. Chinese customs statistics showed that China provided North Korea with 160,000 tons of fertilizer and 1,000 tons of rice at no cost between June and September 2018.

On May 22, 2018, in remarks to reporters, Trump said he was disappointed that Kim had appeared to change his attitude due to the contact with China. Two days later, Washington announced the cancellation of a meeting with Kim.

A high-ranking U.S. government official said the cancellation was a message to Kim that he faced a choice between the United States or China.

Pyongyang subsequently resumed dialogue with Washington, which led to the very first meeting in Singapore between Trump and Kim on June 12, 2018.

CHANGE OF HEART

Trump and Kim met again in Hanoi in February 2019, but they were unable to reach an agreement on the denuclearization of North Korea. Direct talks have since stalled, and there are no signs of the two nations reaching an agreement.

Joseph DeTrani, the former special envoy for six-party talks on North Korea’s nuclear weapons program, said, “China is key to resolving issues with North Korea” because of the various forms of economic assistance Beijing provides.

DeTrani added that excluding China in dealing with North Korea is not a realistic approach.

At the same time, it has become more difficult for the United States to gain the cooperation of China. Since July 2018, the Trump administration has implemented retaliatory tariffs on a total of $250 billion (about 28 trillion yen) worth of Chinese imports.

That led to a trade war as Beijing also slapped tariffs on imports from the United States.

China has also used its relationship with North Korea to contain the United States.

In June 2019, Xi made his first official state visit to North Korea. The visit served to demonstrate to both a domestic and foreign audience the stronger cooperation between the two nations.

In late August 2019, Japanese Foreign Minister Taro Kono visited Beijing for talks with Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi.

According to a government source, Wang told Kono that Washington was strengthening pressure not only on trade, but also regarding Taiwan and Hong Kong.

“That will have a negative effect on our policy toward the denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula,” Wang said.

A Chinese military official who is knowledgeable about North Korea said, “Despite our cooperation on the North Korean issue, the United States triggered a trade war so it was only natural to retaliate.”

Kurt Tong, the former U.S. consul general for Hong Kong and Macao, said, “I don't think it's useful to have a non-economic issue tied to a trade negotiation. I think it would just create less trust between the United States and China."

The twists and turns over the past three years demonstrate that the Trump administration has not established a clear strategy toward China. While Washington initially used the trade card to obtain cooperation from Beijing in dealing with North Korea, it moved toward direct talks with Pyongyang. 

While the United States entered a trade war with China, Trump shifted toward signing a trade agreement with Beijing as he sought tangible results to boast about in his re-election campaign.

The United States and China agreed in December 2019 to reduce tariffs, but no action was taken on issues such as Beijing's subsidies to China's homegrown industries or the theft of intellectual property.

Not only have talks with North Korea made little progress, but North Korea's attitude toward the United States has become stronger.  Washington would also have fewer options if Pyongyang decided to take more provocative steps in the months ahead.

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Kenji Minemura worked as the Chief Foreign Affairs Correspondent in Washington, D.C., and was previously a correspondent in Beijing.