The Defense Ministry’s budget wish list for fiscal 2023 raises disturbing concerns about an unbridled expansion of Japan’s military spending.

The ministry’s spending plan for the year that starts in April contains 100 or so budget items that do not list specific expenditures even though the government has yet to unveil a clear new national security strategy or an overall vision for a defense buildup in the coming years.

These shortcomings in the spending blueprint will make it difficult for government budget drafters to assess the cost effectiveness of planned outlays as they work toward the yearend to formulate the package for the next fiscal year. The upshot could be rapid growth in defense spending not subject to rigorous scrutiny in the face of an increasingly severe fiscal crunch.

The Defense Ministry sought record total appropriations of 5.595 trillion yen ($39.91 billion), up 3.6 percent from the initial budget for the current fiscal year, by the Aug. 31 deadline for ministries and agencies to submit their budget requests for fiscal 2023.

But these figures are misleading because they only reflect expenditures for existing programs. The ministry offers no clues to how much will be spent to achieve the government’s goal of “fundamental enhancement of defense capabilities within five years.” The budget request includes numerous items in line with this policy goal but no specific price tags are listed. There is no question that actual defense spending will be far higher.

The government is working on revisions to three key security policy documents, including its National Security Strategy. The defense budget for the next fiscal year is important because it will be the first spending plan to reflect new policies described in these documents.

The ruling Liberal Democratic Party is calling for a sharp increase in the defense budget within five years with its sights set on the North Atlantic Treaty Organization’s goal of 2 percent or more of gross domestic product for its member nations. But focusing on the size of spending could lead to sloppy evaluations of the necessity of expenditures.

Topping the Defense Ministry’s list of “jiko yokyu” (item request without specifying an amount) are long-range stand-off missiles designed to strike enemy targets from outside the ranges of enemy missiles. These missiles could also be used to strike enemy bases.

The ministry requested 27.2 billion yen to extend the range of existing missiles to around 1,000 kilometers and an unspecified amount to cover the cost of mass production of the projectiles. This is clearly questionable and obviously geared to the Kishida administration’s yet-to-be-announced decision to introduce the capability of striking enemy bases. In short, it amounts to a fait accompli.

Another “jiko yokyu” item concerns the cost of an envisioned sea-based alternative to Aegis Ashore land-based missile defense systems that were scrapped two years ago. Experts have questioned the cost effectiveness of installing the Aegis Ashore system on Maritime Self-Defense Force vessel as it would twice as much as the land-based Aegis Ashore system but could operate for only about a third of the year.

The Defense Ministry has an obligation to first disclose the entire picture of its plan for building vessels equipped with the Aegis Ashore missile defense system, including the total cost.

Certainly, the security landscape in East Asia has become more fraught, primarily due to China’s rapid military buildup and North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in February and surging tensions in the Taiwan Strait have also added to public anxiety about Japan’s security.

But effectively building defense capabilities over a period of years requires insight into the complex international situation and systematic efforts based on a long-term perspective.

The Defense Ministry’s attempt to secure funding for many costly weapons systems by the end of the year without specifying actual costs of acquiring them is an arrogant and irresponsible approach to tackling the challenge. The ministry should propose specific defense spending plans containing all necessary information for broad public debate.

--The Asahi Shimbun, Sept. 2