Photo/Illutration Osaka’s Minami, a commercial area, is busy with shoppers on Oct. 2, the first weekend after the state of emergency was lifted. (Asahi Shimbun file photo)

Revised guidelines to evaluate the COVID-19 situation and whether a state of emergency should be declared will focus more on the strain on the medical system rather than the number of new infections. 

The government’s expert panel on COVID-19 measures published the new guidelines on Nov. 8.

The guidelines classify the seriousness of the COVID-19 situation into five levels, from zero to four, based on how much pressure the medical system is under, including the bed occupancy rate.

The current guidelines provide for four stages based on the number of new infections among other factors. 

The new guidelines focus on how the medical system is coping with COVID-19 because the higher vaccination rate among the population means that a spread in cases likely won't lead to a spike in seriously ill patients or deaths.

In the new guidelines, Level 0 (zero infection level) is where zero infections are sustained on a continuous basis. Level 1 (level to sustain) is where the medical system is coping well with COVID-19 cases.

Level 2 (level to be more vigilant) is where the number of patients is increasing but the medical system is keeping up. 

Level 3 (level to toughen measures) is where it is deemed that hospital beds set aside for COVID-19 patients will be full in three weeks’ time and where a state of emergency should be declared. This level corresponds to Stage 4 (explosion in infections) and the last phase of Stage 3 (rapid increase in infections) in the current guidelines.

Level 4 (level to avoid) is where the infection situation is at its worst and the medical system cannot cope with the pandemic even if it significantly limits its capacity to treat non-COVID-19 patients.

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