Photo/Illutration Autumn colors at their best at Tofukuji temple in Kyoto's Higashiyama Ward on Nov. 23, 2018 (Asahi Shimbun file photo)

Converted to the modern solar calendar, Oct. 28 was the date on which Fujiwara no Michinaga, a Heian Period (794-1185) statesman, wrote in his diary about the autumn leaves he admired in Kyoto.

For Fujiwara no Teika, a poet of the Kamakura Period (1185-1333), that date was Nov. 7. And for Rai Sanyo, a Japanese Confucianist scholar of the late Edo Period (1603-1867), it was Nov. 11.

In their lifetimes, autumn leaves changed colors in Kyoto much earlier than today. Yasuyuki Aono, 58, an associate professor of agricultural meteorology at Osaka Prefecture University, has researched the diaries of court nobles and men of letters to estimate when Japan's fall foliage season occurred through history.

"I was able to do this precisely because Kyoto remains a treasure trove of old documents to this day," Aono said.

Guessing the temperatures in autumn from those records, he compiled "leaf watching" data spanning 1,100 years starting from the Heian Period.

The start of the leaf season fluctuated cyclically, influenced by the degree of solar activity in any given year. But since the latter half of the Edo Period, the season began to peak progressively later. By the time Japan's postwar economic miracle era was over, most newspaper reports on autumn leaves came out after mid-November.

"That must have been due to urban warming, with cities retaining exhaust heat and reflected heat from the spurt in building and human activity," Aono explained.

Armed with an "autumn leaf timetable" that Aono created, I flew on The Asahi Shimbun's helicopter last week for an aerial observation of Kyoto.

Although the summit of Mount Hieizan was beginning to turn scarlet, the Saga district visited by Michinaga in the year 999 was only dotted with yellow patches in places. As for the Kamo area which Teika described as being "in peak season" in 1226, verdant foliage was still predominant.

That said, however, I was impressed anew by Kyoto's status as an ancient capital. Shrines and temples, famed from the Heian and Kamakura periods as "must visit" places for foliage viewing, have survived to this day. They reminded me of their 1,000-year history of preserving the timeless beauty of brocade-like colorful leaves.

Should global warming advance unchecked, the time may come when maple and ginkgo leaves start changing colors in late December and the mountains blaze red around New Year's Day.

I wonder if that would baffle Michinaga and Teika.

--The Asahi Shimbun, Nov. 11

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Vox Populi, Vox Dei is a popular daily column that takes up a wide range of topics, including culture, arts and social trends and developments. Written by veteran Asahi Shimbun writers, the column provides useful perspectives on and insights into contemporary Japan and its culture.

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